Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Similar conditions as today persisting Thurs, easing Fri, generally light variable winds (E'ly if anything)
• Smaller and very windy weekend ahead, give it a miss
• Building windy swell Mon (protected spots only)
• Very large surf Tues with winds swinging NW
• Easing Wed onwards with good conditions

Recap

Small clean 1-2ft leftovers west of Melbourne and 2-3ft east of Melbourne on Tuesday. Leading edge of a new long period swell reached the Pt Nepean buoy around midnight and has slowly built in size across the coast; Surf Coast increased from an early 2ft to 3-5ft by lunchtime, whilst the East Coast has seen 4-5ft sets to push a solid 6ft+ or more through the day. Conditions have been nice and clean for the last 48 hours with light variable winds. 

This week (May 12 - 13)

No major changes to the forecast for the rest of the week. 

A slack pressure gradient should maintain generally light variable winds, tending easterly if anything but without any real strength. 

The current swell event is expected plateau in size into Thursday before easing slowly through Friday. This pattern is a little different from a single-source swell events that rise quickly, peak and then steadily ease; we have secondary swells due to fill in over the coming 24 hours from follow-up fronts trailing the primary low pressure system.

What this means is that there may be periods where the swell appears to be showing signs of easing, however it’s likely to be temporary. So if Thursday morning is undersized, keep an eye out for a boost over the following hours. 

Therefore, expect size to fluctuate in and around the 6ft+ mark east of Melbourne (give or take) with 3-5ft surf along the Surf Coast (upper end of this size range at the reef break swell magnets). And it’ll remain very inconsistent at times with long flat spells between sets. Patience!

A gradual easing is then expected through Friday though the early session should still see some solid leftover sets. 

This weekend (May 14 - 15)

The weekend still looks pretty average, thanks to freshening winds that will slowly clock around from the N/NW to the NW then W/NW. 

This will maintain clean conditions across the Surf Coast however we’ll see a steadily easing size trend through this time, from perhaps some early inconsistent 2-3ft sets Saturday to 1-2ft by lunchtime. 

A small new swell is expected later Saturday and into Sunday but it’ll be quite westerly in direction so probably won’t contribute much more size to the Surf Coast, which is the only region that’ll enjoy the gusty NW tending W/NW wind direction. 

East of Melbourne will see even more size, but options will be greatly limited under this wind regime. So keep your expectations low. 

Next week (May 16 onwards)

The outlook for early next week has improved a lot, thanks to a subtle shift in the timing of the main frontal passage. It won’t affect the swell potential a great deal - we’re still looking at a very sizeable event - though it will push the peak back to Tuesday, by which time we should see local winds swing back to the NW. 

Monday’s still looking to be pretty blustery as the front approaches and then crosses the region. We’ll see strengthening W/NW tending W’ly winds and building W/SW swells into the 4-5ft range in Torquay by late afternoon (much smaller early morning) with bigger but very wind affected waves east of Melbourne.

Tuesday’s peak will be source from the parent polar low, well to the south of the continent on Saturday and Sunday. It’ll slingshot right through the ideal Victorian swell window (see below) and should provide a peak in size around 6-8ft across the Surf Coast, and 8-10ft east of Melbourne.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the odd bigger set too (i.e. rogue 8-10ft+ sets at Surf Coast swell magnets); it’s a really impressively aligned frontal passage, at strength. Regardless, this won't be a swell for inexperience: there'll be a lot of water moving around and so most surfers will be best off inside sheltered corners, bays, coves and points.

This peak will be accompanied by moderate to fresh NW winds that will favour excellent waves west of Melbourne, and a secondary front flaring up just to our south-west around the same time should somewhat arrest the easing trend into Wednesday; i.e. maintaining another day of solid though gradually abating surf with winds holding from the NW. 

A more defined easing trend will probably then occupy the end of next week and part of the following weekend, but there’s a stack of impressive fronts lining up behind this that are looking like renewing strong surf for Victoria through the following week. 


More on this in Friday’s update.