Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 15th April)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Sunday, Wednesday Surf Coast for the keen

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Low point in swell tomorrow morning ahead of a new, moderate sized + SW groundswell into the afternoon
• Light N/NE tending NE winds tomorrow
• Easing S/SW groundswell Sun with strong N winds (easing and tending N/NW into the PM Surf Coast and N/NE on the MP for most of the day)
• Light W/SW-SW tending fresh S winds Mon (early W/NW Surf Coast) with a moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for the PM
• Easing groundswell Tue with fresh S/SE winds
• Building, mid-period SW swell Wed PM with fresh NW tending W/NW winds
• Large SW groundswell building Thu with S/SE winds

Recap

One of the best days of surfing for a long time across the Surf Coast yesterday with Wednesday afternoon's strong pulse of S/SW groundswell easing back to the 4ft range (bigger sets magnets) while a reinforcing SW pulse steadied the easing trend into the afternoon. Winds were great, flirting from the east at times while the beaches to the east were a little too large but also clean all day.

Today the reinforcing SW groundswell is on the ease, with 4ft sets on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft waves to the east. We'll see conditions remain favourable most of the day again with winds going variable.

This weekend and next week (Apr 16 – 22)

The last few day's of quality groundswell will ease back temporarily into tomorrow morning but the Surf Coast shouldn't drop below 2-3ft on the swell magnets with 4ft+ sets to the east.

Into the afternoon we should see our new pulse of SW swell filling in, generated by a healthy polar front that's been moving through our swell window since yesterday and is generating strong to gale-force W/SW winds in our southern swell window today.

This will produce a moderate sized + swell which should kick to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets with 6ft+ sets to the east, easing through Sunday from 4ft and 5-6ft respectively.

Winds tomorrow will favour the beaches with a light N/NE tending NE breeze (best in the morning to the east before the swell gets too big).

While Sunday will see stronger N'ly winds, easing slightly into the afternoon and tending N/NW on the Surf Coast. To the east winds should be N/NE on the peninsula and straighter N across Phillip Island.

A trough will move in Sunday evening, with early light W/SW-SW winds left into Monday morning (possibly W/NW early Surf Coast), strengthening out of the S'th later morning as a high starts edging in.

Swell wise the surf will be smaller and back to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east. A new, inconsistent SW groundswell should arrive mid-late morning though, generated by a more fractured polar low that's currently east of the Heard Island region. A distant fetch of strong to gale-force winds are being generated and the size of this swell will be inconsistent and peaking Monday afternoon to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east but with those fresh S winds.

Tuesday looks to remain average with fresh S/SE breezes as the SW groundswell eases, shifting back to the NW on Wednesday as a cold front pushes in from the west.

Now, this cold front will be attached to a great polar frontal progression firing up through south-west of Western Australia on Sunday, strengthening while pushing under the country next week.

This will be a sustained and multi-threaded frontal progression with some new, mid-period SW energy due to build later Wednesday ahead of a larger SW groundswell on Thursday, peaking into the afternoon.

Unfortunately behind Wednesday's front we'll see another high move in bringing S/SE breezes, creating poor conditions at the peak of the swell. Size wise the Surf Coast should offer waves in the 6ft+ range, 8ft to the east but we'll confirm this Monday. Have a great weekend!