Increasing swell activity though winds remain an issue
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th February)
Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow, Wednesday morning, and Thursday morning Surf Coast, Friday morning Surf Coast, Saturday, Sunday Surf Coast
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Inconsistent SW groundswell tomorrow with moderate S'ly winds, easing Wed with a reinforcing, smaller SW swell under light S/SE-SE tending fresher S winds
- Easing SW swell with strengthening SW winds Thu (W/NW early on the Surf Coast)
- Inconsistent SW groundswell building Fri with a larger pulse later in the day. Fresh W/NW tending strong SW winds late AM
- Easing mix of SW swells Sat with light to moderate S/SE winds
- Smaller Sun with fresh W/NW winds
Recap
Poor conditions across the Surf Coast with a junky mix of swells Saturday to 3ft, improving on the beaches to the east through the morning as winds shifted more E'ly. The swell was peaky and mixed though.
Yesterday was much cleaner with a gusty N/NE breeze though smaller mix of swells dropping back to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to the east. Today the surf is bumpy with a small to tiny mix of leftover swells.
This week and weekend (Feb 15 - 20)
Later this afternoon we should see some new SW groundswell filling in (Cape Sorell has picked up this new building groundswell), generated by a strong but short-lived polar low that fired up under the country on the weekend.
While intense the fetch was aimed a little off axis through our swell window keeping a cap on any major size and winds look onshore in any case tomorrow, moderate from the S'th.
Size wise the Surf Coast should come in at 3-4ft (more so a solid 4ft on the magnets) with 6ft surf to the east.
Lighter winds are expected into Wednesday from the S/SE-SE as the size drops a touch but steadies thanks to a reinforcing pulse of SW swell. This is being generated by a weaker front pushing in behind the low, generating a fetch of strong W/NW winds through our south-western swell window.
It should maintain 3ft sets across the Surf Coast with 4-5ft waves to the east with those workable, light morning winds.
Moving into Thursday an approaching frontal progression will bring strengthening SW winds, but the Surf Coast should see a morning W/NW breeze and easing 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets.
This progression will generate a moderate to large groundswell for Friday and Saturday with an initial fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds firing up east of the Heard Island region today, projecting slowly east before weakening under the country Wednesday. A secondary strong fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds will quickly swing in on the back of the polar low, producing the largest pulse of groundswell for later Friday and Saturday morning.
The initial polar low should generate an inconsistent SW groundswell that will build through Friday, increasing from 2-3ft in the morning on the Surf Coast towards 4-5ft into the afternoon with the larger swell kicking to 5-6ft on dark. Saturday morning looks to ease from 4-6ft.
The Mornington Peninsula should build towards 6ft during the afternoon Friday with a late pulse more towards 8ft, easing from 6-8ft on Saturday morning.
All this swell is a start but the big question is will the winds cooperate.
Friday morning will be nice and clean with a moderate to fresh W/NW breeze, shifting strong SW late morning as the secondary front clips us, with Saturday unfortunately seeing light to moderate S/SE winds in the wake of the front. Winds will remain light all day though providing workable surf across all regions, swinging back to the W/NW on Sunday as the swell drops from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast.
Some weaker, reinforcing mid-period SW swell is due into early next week as winds shift back S'ly on Tuesday in the wake of a change Monday, SE on Wednesday. We'll have a closer look at this Wednesday though.
Comments
Starting to like you again Craig..
Gotta have a nice slow roll in after the lack of action all summer! Ha.
One from Gary G’s playbook. He’s a gentleman, after all.
Look I am grateful.. but my pessimism cant help but dread the inevitable crowd. Yesterdays slow 1 foot conditions looked like a human carpet at the spots working along sc. Imagine something above 2 foot!! Ah well at least some waves finally
I cracked open the longboard further down the beach where it was smaller and less crowded and snared some small runners that were surprisingly fun.
Love surfing in boardies and rashie. Wasn't epic but stoked the stoke.
I've actually had waves throughout summer - not huge but good waves - just gotta travel a little.
Yeah.........to NSW & Southern Queensland.
Easy as!
Most of Victoria has had some sort of surf all summer except for the surf coast. Had to laugh the other day, 4 to 5 ft and offshore on the Peninsula and nothing but shutdowns and shit 2 ft reforms, bring back the head-high twisters from the SE. Best summer yet
A classic comment today from a young bloke from the peninsula who is one of the better surfers here.
Summer was sick, surfable waves nearly every day, not pumping but fun, better that than the occasional day that pumps and then days on end of shit.
He’d have to be taking the piss (or he’s 4ft tall)
absolutely geek, but i was thinking about this last night... surfing is such an individual thing that 1-2 ft (waist high) offshore waves could be some peoples idea of a great surf.
So if you're getting that day after day then you'd be stoked with the summer we've had.
I like something a little bit more exciting so for me its been a stinker
Haha, the Penisula must drive you mad Goofy, most surfs overhead are shutdowns, and ya chasing the inside 2 to 3 footers, unless you don't surf most days and charge the reefs on the big days, the bloke who made the comment actually surfs the tiny days, the shit onshore days, the grovels at inside Sorrento, and is one of the only guys who paddle some of the heavy reefs on the 10ft plus days. He loves it all. Personally, I love the tiny waist-high days where I can dip my beautiful melon into the soft lip and tell my mates I got barrelled.
Still better then sw Vic. Winds have been too southeast overnight EVERY FUCKING DAY so the mornings have been to chunky for any decent bank to turn on. Even when the wind swings east northeast for 4 hours before the 10am sea breeze
“ where I can dip my beautiful melon into the soft lip ” hahahahaha
And yes, it does drive me mad
Nah it's been shit everywhere in Victoria except the east coast since November. Too many easterlys for sw Vic and not enough swell for the far west
Maybe the West end of the peninsula catches a bit more of the SE swells than gunna and more so than PI and the Bass coast, surely the stretch from Aire River to portland and beyond would have had some sort of swell. And the E and ENE winds would have been good. Would have been a few glory days from the serpentine island all the way east to the stonedcoota and beyond.
All i know is that Phillip Island has had the worst summer ever only a few days that have gotten above waist high most days even at Woolamai have been tiny or even flat and mostly weak low period swells, we got one half decent swell the other day with an onshore and everyone was frothing.
Bring on Autumn !
I've had some good waves at Woolie and further down the bass coast. Surfed at the bottom of Vic. the other day - wasn't big - but enough for a nice glide on the 9'3".
Nice. Wind tomorrow looking variable early all locations now.
Gonna be a bit of lump and bump begging to be ironed out though :(. Beggars cant be choosers etc.
Yep but better than nothing eh.
"Yep but better than the Surfcoast eh"
*Fixed
Psst...Mentone beach has been all-time this summer.