Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 31st January)

Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow morning Surf Coast, desperate surfers Fri AM on the exposed beaches, Monday morning on the Surf Coast beaches for the desperate

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of SW and S/SW swells tomorrow with strengthening SW winds (light W'ly during the early-mid morning Surf Coast)
• Moderate size mid-period S/SW swell for dawn Wed, easing through the day with strong, abating S/SW winds
• Easing S/SW swell Thu with fresh S/SW winds, smaller Fri with E/SE tending strong SE winds
• Mod-fresh E/SE tending strong SE winds Sat and Sun with small levels of SE windswell
• Fading SE windswell early next week with E/NE-NE morning winds Mon and Tue

Recap

Poor surf to start off the weekend while our new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Sunday filled in on forecast. The morning was inconsistent and to 2-3ft o the Surf Coast swell magnets with 3-5ft waves to the east, best in protected spots with a light to moderate E/SE breeze.

The swell kicked further into the afternoon with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula as winds become less favourable.

This morning the swell is easing but the Surf Coast is still seeing lumpy 3ft sets under a variable wind, with 4-6ft surf reported east of Melbourne.

This week and weekend (Feb 1 - 6)

Looking at the week ahead and unfortunately the window for an offshore N/NW wind tomorrow on the Surf Coast and Mornington Peninsula has closed, with a deepening trough that's approaching from the west now due to come in a little earlier and quicker than forecast on Friday.

This will bring moderate to fresh SW winds to most locations tomorrow morning, strengthening into the afternoon. The outlier to this is the Surf Coast with lighter W'ly winds due for a period through the morning, but surf wise we'll be looking at a small mix of swells to 2ft+ with 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Therefore it won't be worth driving any real distance to chase a wave.

The deepening trough looks to generate a healthy spike of mid-period S/SW swell for Wednesday morning with a fetch of strong to near gale-force S/SW winds projected through our swell window during tomorrow.

The Surf Coast looks to build late tomorrow but spike temporarily to 3-4ft dawn Wednesday, easing through the day with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will be poor though with a fresh to strong, though slowly abating S/SW breeze.

Unfortunately onshore winds will persist into the end of the week as the mid-period energy fades, replaced by SE windswell later Friday through the weekend. This will be linked to a strong, broad high moving in slowly from the west as instability on the East Coast and in the Tasman Sea squeezes its north-eastern flank, bringing persistent S/SW winds Thursday, easing and tending E/SE-SE on Friday. The Mornington Peninsula should still have a 2-3ft wave on offer Friday morning, though weak in nature.

Come the weekend winds look fresh from the E/SE tending stronger SE through both Saturday and Sunday, with small levels of SE windswell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 1-2ft on the Mornington Peninsula. There'll be no groundswell in the water and options for a quality wave look minimal.

The high will continue east into next week, shifting winds around to the E/NE-NE through the mornings ahead of a trough and SW change Wednesday.

This shift in winds won't be with any new swell unfortunately with weak, small levels of SE windswell fading through Monday and Tuesday, bottoming out Wednesday.

So when is the next meaningful swell due?

There's nothing too significant showing on the charts longer term but it looks like we may see favourable winds and a fun, mid-period swell late next week/weekend. More on this in the coming updates.