Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 29th December)

Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday and Saturday mornings across exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, inconsistent mid-period SW swell for tomorrow with light NE tending fresh S/SE winds
• Easing SW swell Fri with moderate N/NE tending variable winds (early afternoon) ahead of sea breezes
• Small to tiny swell Sat with fresh N/NE winds ahead of a S/SW change early afternoon
• Tiny Sun with light S/SE tending stronger S/SW winds
• Small, mid-period W/SW swell building Mon with strong S/SW winds
• Better SW swell building Tue, peaking Wed with strong SE-S/SE winds
• Easing SW swell into the end of next week with a new SE windswell. Strong SE winds

Recap

Average to poor surf yesterday with onshore winds and bumpy/choppy conditions across all locations as Monday morning's swell continued to ease.

Today the surf is smaller again and to 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east but with a lighter onshore wind, offering workable options for the keen.

This week and weekend (Dec 29 – Jan 2)

From tomorrow we'll see winds improve and swing offshore with a good run of clean conditions due until Sunday.

Swell wise though it'll be slim pickings with weak, inconsistent, mid-period swells due to pad out the coming days.

A new pulse of mid-period SW swell is due this afternoon and tomorrow morning, generated by a less than favourably aligned and weak polar front pushing in behind the strong activity linked to Sunday/Monday's S/SW groundswell.

The Surf Coast should provide inconsistent 2ft+ sets with 3-4ft waves to the east under a light, morning NE breeze.

S/SE breezes will kick in during the afternoon so surf before then.

The swell will fade into Friday from 1-2ft and 2-3ft respectively and conditions will be great again with a moderate N/NE offshore, tending variable early afternoon ahead of sea breezes.

The models are showing a small lift in weak swell on Saturday but the source of this is an off axis fetch of NW winds forming too close to us to see any swell spreading up into our region.

The Surf Coast will likely be tiny and to 1-1.5ft with 2ft+ sets to the east if we're lucky. Conditions will be great again with a fresh N/NE offshore, giving into a trough and S'ly change early afternoon.

This trough will signal a change in weather and wind as a strong high pushes in from the west, bringing light S/SE tending stronger S/SW winds on Sunday, strong from the S/SW on Monday then shifting S/SE-SE on Tuesday.

This will spoil a couple of swells, the first being a small, mid-period W/SW swell generated by a weak frontal progression pushing up towards and under Western Australia over the coming days.

The swell from this system is due to build Monday and peak later to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east but with that poor wind. Tuesday morning looks to come in at a similar size.

A stronger trailing low looks to generate a better pulse of mid-period swell for later Tuesday and more so Wednesday though the models diverge a little on the strength of this system. Either way conditions will remain poor with SE tending strong S/SE winds, becoming even stronger through the end of the week as troughs off the East Coast squeeze high pressure to our south-west. This will produce junky SE windswell on the Surf Coast through the end of the week, easing into next weekend as winds shift more east to north-east.

Longer term the models diverge regarding activity firing up behind the strong high next week so check back here on Friday for more on this.