Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 15th December)

Best Days: Friday morning on the beaches, early Saturday for the keen on the exposed beaches, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Monday Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Low point in swell tomorrow AM with early W/NW winds on the Surf Coast, S/SW tending S/SE elsewhere
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building tomorrow PM, peaking Fri AM with light E/NE-NE winds ahead of fresh SE sea breezes
• Fading, inconsistent W/SW groundswell Sat with strong N/NE winds ahead of a strong, midday SW change
• Better, inconsistent W/SW groundswell Sun with W/NW tending S/SW winds
• Mid-period W/SW swelll Mon with fresh N/NW tending W/NW winds
• Likely larger SW groundswell mid next week

Recap

A low point in surf yesterday morning with average, onshore winds while today there's some new W/SW swell in the water but with those persistent southerly breezes. The Surf Coast is 2ft while the beaches to the east are inconsistent but 4ft on the sets.

This week and weekend (Dec 16 - 19)

Tomorrow will be another lay day as this morning's swell eases into this afternoon and drops further into the morning. Winds will be moderate from the S/SW across most locations, though the Surf Coast will likely see early W/NW winds but be tiny.

Our new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due to arrive through the afternoon as winds shift S/SE, but Friday morning is still the pick with the peak in energy and cleaner conditions.

We should see winds tend E/NE and even possibly NE late morning ahead of sea breezes on Friday along with inconsistent 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with waves to 2ft on the Surf Coast. The afternoon will become smaller and bumpier as fresh SE sea breezes kick in so surf before lunch.

Moving into the weekend and Saturday morning will offer a window of clean conditions but it'll be short-lived and tricky. Strong N/NE winds and a low point in swell won't provide much of a quality wave and a strong SW change is due around midday, writing off the surf for the rest of the day.

Size wise the Surf Coast will be hardly 1-2ft with 2-3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Saturday afternoon's change is linked to a weak trough moving through and winds are due to swing back to the W/NW-NW on Sunday morning ahead of another, shallow S/SW change through the afternoon.

Swell wise our better W/SW groundswell is due, generated by a healthy frontal progression and polar low firing up from the Heard Island region, towards Western Australia the last couple of days.

This swell will be slightly more consistent compared to Friday's and a little bigger with waves to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

Next week onwards (Dec 20 onwards)

Monday looks a little weaker in power but similar in size as some reinforcing mid-period W/SW swell fills in, generated by a weak mid-latitude front passing under the country on the weekend. Winds look great and out of the N/NW ahead of a shift to the W/NW through the day, favouring the Surf Coast all day.

Of much greater importance is the upgrade in a polar low that's due to form south-west of Western Australia on the weekend. The American model has this low being much stronger and bigger in scope than the European global forecast models but either way we're looking at a strong SW groundswell for the middle of the week. The bonus with this low and associated frontal progression is that it'll move up and across us bringing winds out of the western quadrant.

Check back here on Friday and Monday though for further updates on this incoming swell.