Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th November)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning Surf Coast, Wednesday exposed spots until mid-late afternoon, possibly beaches Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized, easing mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow with moderate SW winds (lighter and W/NW early on the Surf Coast)
• Fading swell Wed with light N/NW tending N/NE and then SE winds
• Low point in swell Thu with strengthening N/NE winds
• Strengtheing S/SW winds Fri
• Building mid-period S/SW swell Sat with E tending SE winds, easing Sun with SE tending SW winds

Recap

Poor surf on Saturday with a mix of swells and onshore winds, better yesterday morning on the Surf Coast with clean conditions ahead of a strong cold front and 2ft to occasionally 3ft waves on the Surf Coast.

Into the afternoon the frontal system started to push in and some localised windswell started to build with favourable conditions for protected spots.

Today we've got a freezing morning, snow on the apline regions and a large, stormy SW swell coming in around the 6ft range on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east but with generally poor conditions. Protected spots are the go for experienced surfers.

This week and weekend (Nov 16 - 21)

The next two days are the ones to focus on for this coming week as the strong cold outbreak responsible for today's swell and weather clears off to the east as a high moves in from the west.

With the trailing fetch off the back of the polar frontal system being S/SW, we'll see dropping levels of mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow, further Wednesday before bottoming out Thursday.

Winds tomorrow will relax but persist from the SW (moderate in strength) with the Surf Coast seeing a period of lighter, W/NW winds early-mid morning.

It won't be perfect on the Surf Coast and a little lumpy but fun with easing surf from the 4ft range, 5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula and smaller across Phillip Island due to the southerly swell direction.

Winds are now looking better for the beaches on Wednesday with early N/NW winds shifting N/NE ahead of sea breezes, and this will see improving conditions through the morning before becoming bumpy mid-late afternoon.

The swell will be weak and small though, easing from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east.

The next approaching system from the west will be a surface trough, bringing freshening N/NE winds Thursday that will become stronger into the afternoon. There'll be no decent swell in the water though with tiny waves on the Surf Coast and a possible 1-2ft of background, mid-period swell on the Mornington Peninsula.

The trough will move through Friday bringing a strengthening S/SW breeze but no new surf.

Swell wise a new, mid-period S/SW swell is on the cards for Saturday, building through the day and peaking into the afternoon. This will be generated by a broad though weak fetch of W/SW winds projecting from the polar shelf, up towards Tasmania Wednesday through Friday.

The Surf Coast should build to 3ft on the sets through the afternoon, 3-5ft to the east and there looks to be a period of lighter E'ly winds Saturday morning when it'll be smaller ahead of strengthening SE winds into the afternoon.

Winds will then swing from SE to SW through Sunday as the swell eases and a deepening inland low drifts south-east across us.

This isn't expected to bring any swell but more weather and rain, and longer term it remains quiet. More on this in the coming updates.