Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th November)

Best Days: Protected spots Monday and Tuesday morning, Surf Coast Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small mix of swells tomorrow with mod-fresh SW tending S/SE winds
• Easing mix of swells Fri with pre-dawn S/SE winds, tending E/SE (possibly E/NE east of Melbourne), then back to the S/SE
• Small, mid-period S/SW swell for Sat and Sun AM with strengthening S/SW winds Sat, stronger NW tending W/NW ahead of a W/SW change Sun
• Large mix of swells Mon with strong SW winds (W/NW at dawn on the Surf Coast)
• Easing surf Tue with mod-fresh SW winds (lighter and W/NW early on the Surf Coast)
• Easing swell Wed with NW tending S winds

Recap

The early wasn't great on the Surf Coast yesterday with the big high tide and a fresh pulse of W/SW swell only starting to reach its full potential as the water ran out mid-morning. Conditions were clean though and we saw fun 3ft surf through the day, bigger to the east and to 5-6ft on the beaches.

Conditions became bumpy on the Surf Coast reefs into the afternoon while locations to the east remained clean and glassy with a slight drop in energy opening up more options.

Today a trough has moved through bringing moderate to fresh onshore winds with a drop in swell.

When the tide started to run out yesterday AM

This week and next (Nov 11 - 19)

As touched on in Monday's update yesterday was the day to capitalise on, with the end of the week looking poor swell and conditions wise.

Today's trough will linger into tomorrow, with moderate to fresh SW winds, shifting more S/SE into the late afternoon/evening along with a weak mix of windswell and mid-period energy. The Surf Coast looks to be around 2ft to possibly 3ft with 4ft waves to the east.

Come Friday the swell will be smaller and weaker, with average S/SE tending E/SE winds, back to the S/SE through the day.

There may be a period of E/NE winds on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island during the morning but it'll only be 2ft or so and full.

Winds will move back to the S/SW on Saturday and strengthen as the trough responsible for the current onshore winds deepens into a low off the southern NSW coast.

Swell wise there's nothing major due with a weak, mid-period S/SW swell to 2ft due on the Surf Coast, 3ft to the east.

Of greater significance is the strengthen polar frontal progression pushing up and into us through Saturday and Sunday.

This frontal progression won't be especially strong but it'll be broad and slow moving in nature with various fetches of strong to near gale-force SW-S/SW winds being projected through our south-western and southern swell windows.

Any swell from this progression isn't expected until Monday when the front proper pushes across us, but on Sunday strong pre-frontal NW tending W/NW winds will create clean conditions on the Surf Coast with easing levels of mid-period S/SW swell from 2ft.

Come Monday the large, mid-period swell from the frontal system proper will fill in, mixed with local windswell. The Surf Coast looks to come in at a chunky 6ft with 8ft surf to the east, easing back Tuesday from 4-5ft+ and 6ft to possibly 8ft respectively.

Winds will be generally strong from the SW on Monday, though the Surf Coast should see a period of early W/NW winds, similar Tuesday but with less strength to local winds. While not being anywhere near clean and groomed, protected spots will offer fun waves for the experienced both Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Wednesday looks the cleanest with a light NW offshore but the swell will be weaker and on the way out, dropping from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

Longer term the outlook remains average with a trough moving in Wednesday afternoon, bringing S'ly winds and average surf into the end of the week and following weekend. More on this in the coming updates though.