Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 13th August)

Best Days: Protected spots Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning, keen surfers early Tuesday, and Wednesday, beaches next Friday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell for Sat AM, easing later with mid-period easing SW swell easing Sun
• Fresh NW winds Sat, easing into the PM, stronger N/NW tending NW Sun
• Building mix of large, mid-period and groundswell from the SW Mon (peaking PM) with fresh W/NW winds, tending SW into the PM
• Large, easing SW swell Tue with fresh SW winds (W/NW early west of Melbourne)
• Easing S/SW swell Wed with N/NW winds, smaller Thu with NW tending SW winds

Recap

Yesterday played out on forecast with an initial, infrequent W/SW groundswell providing good 3ft waves across most breaks on the Surf Coast with 4ft sets on the swell magnets, 5-6ft to the east.

Some slightly bigger and more consistent mid-period W/SW swell filled in through the afternoon though with 3-4ft+ sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets, easing from a similar size this morning. The Mornington Peninsula was relatively clean as well this morning, best in protected spots and great across Phillip Island. The swell should ease a touch further through the day as winds swing W/NW.

This weekend and next week (Aug 14 - 20)

Following the mix of W/SW groundswell and mid-period W/SW swell yesterday and today, we've got a strong new pulse of W/SW groundswell for tomorrow, generated by a great frontal system drifting from the south-east Indian Ocean the last couple of days.

Severe-gale W/NW winds through our western swell window are now giving way to a weaker, trailing fetch of gale-force W/SW winds through our south-western swell window, south-west of Tasmania today.

The severe-gale fetch will generate a good W/SW groundswell for tomorrow morning, producing good 3-5ft waves on the Surf Coast, easing a touch into the afternoon. The trailing fetch is still due to produce a reinforcing, slightly smaller SW swell for the afternoon, easing Sunday.

We'll see easing 3-4ft sets Sunday on the Surf Coast magnets, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions tomorrow will be great for protected spots with a moderate to fresh NW breeze, easing through the day and then strengthening N/NW tending NW winds on Sunday.

We then look to the strong polar low that's due to fire up under the country on the weekend, generating a large, long-period SW groundswell for Monday.

This low will develop south of Western Australia tomorrow morning, with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds projected east before broadening and weakening back to gale-force on Sunday.

These gales will be slow moving and continue to project towards us on Monday, with a mix of long-period and mid-period SW swell due to build through the day, peaking late in the day/overnight and easing Tuesday.

Size wise the Surf Coast should be 4-5ft+ in the morning through building to the 6ft+ range into the afternoon with building sets to 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Tuesday will then see easing surf from the 6ft range on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east.

Winds are still an issue with a gusty, morning W/NW breeze Monday, due to swing SW into the afternoon but there'll be plenty of time for a surf with the building swell before lunch.

Tuesday looks average with fresh to strong SW winds, tipping W/NW for a short period early on the Surf Coast. With this conditions will be a bit lumpy and not perfect.

Wednesday will see winds swing back offshore from the NW along with easing mid-period swell from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east.

Longer term there's nothing too significant to end off the week with NW tending SW winds and smaller surf Thursday, back to the N/NE on Friday but small.

Next weekend some new W/SW swell is on the cards, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!