Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 2nd August)

Best Days: Late Thursday Surf Coast, Friday and Saturday Surf Coast, Sunday both locations

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing W/SW groundswell tomorrow with strengthening NW tending W/NW winds
• Weak, W/SW swell Wed AM, easing with fresh W/NW tending strong SW winds
• Late increase in SW groundswell Thu with W/NW tending W winds, peaking Fri AM with W/NW winds
• Moderate-large SW groundswell for Sat with fresh W/NW winds, easing Sun with with N/NW tending variable winds

Recap

The weekend played out pretty much to script, though with the swell from Friday easing back a bit more than expected with the Surf Coast being a slow 2ft+ or so, with 3ft+ waves to the east. Winds were workable on the beaches in the morning before shifting more favourable for the Surf Coast into the afternoon.

A new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell filled in during yesterday with sets building back to 3ft on the Surf Coast with decent conditions, easing back today from 2-3ft, with 4ft surf to the east as winds improved for the beaches.

This week and next week (Aug 3 - 8)

After the recent couple of weeks of fun waves across both the beaches and reefs, the coming week is a bit slower and hit and miss until Friday, with favourable winds for the Surf Coast but no major size, poor to the east.

Looking at tomorrow and we'll see yesterday's inconsistent groundswell continuing to ease, leaving fading, inconsistent 2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east. Winds will strengthen from the NW, becoming even stronger from the W/NW into the afternoon.

The strengthening winds will be associated with relatively weak mid-latitude low pushing in from the west, but mostly north of our swell window.

As it moves across us, strong W/SW winds will be aimed through our close-range swell window tomorrow afternoon and evening, producing a small, weak W'ly swell for Wednesday morning.

The Surf Coast only looks to be around 2-3ft with 4-5ft+ to the east. Conditions on Wednesday morning will be OK though likely a little lumpy and with the weak swell, not great at all, with a fresh W/NW'ly, shifting stronger SW into the afternoon.

Thursday will see the weak W/SW swell continuing to ease with a moderate W/NW morning breeze, holding out of the W into the afternoon, and late in the day but more so Friday, a new pulse of SW groundswell is due.

This swell will be generated by the first in a flurry of pre-frontal fetches of W/NW gales moving south-east from the Indian Ocean, with a late increase to 3ft due on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east, with a peak likely overnight. Friday morning should see 3-4ft sets, easing through the day on the Surf Coast with 5-6ft sets to to the east.

Winds will hold from the W/NW most of the day Friday, favouring the Surf Coast, with a shift to the W at times due into the afternoon.

Into Saturday we've got a stronger and bigger pulse of SW groundswell due, generated by stronger pre-frontal W/NW winds sliding in from the Indian Ocean before a polar low forms, aiming severe-gale W'ly winds through our south-western swell window on the polar shelf.

The Surf Coast should see good 4-6ft surf with 6-8ft waves to the east under moderate to fresh W/NW winds that should hold all day. The swell will ease Sunday under N/NW tending variable winds, providing lots of options across the state.

Longer term a moderate sized W/SW groundswell is due later next week, but more on this in the coming updates.