Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 28th May)

Best Days: Sunday through Wednesday on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mid-period SW swell tomorrow with light to moderate S/SE winds
• Inconsistent W'ly groundswell building Sun PM with N/NE tending variable winds, easing Mon with a light-moderate N/NW breeze, shifting N/NE into the afternoon east of Melbourne
• Inconsistent SW swell building Wed with fresh N/NE winds, easing Thu with fresh NW tending SW winds

Recap

OK waves across the protected reefs on the Surf Coast yesterday morning with a mid-period W/SW swell and W/NW winds, shifting onshore into the afternoon and a write-off across all locations today.

This weekend and next week (May 29 – Jun 4)

While it's unfortunate to be in another lock down, take comfort in that the forecast for the coming period isn't anything too special or exciting at all.

Today's mid-period SW swell which should hold all day, will start to ease through tomorrow, dropping from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and the 4ft range on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds will still be an issue though and light to moderate from the S/SE, creating bumpy conditions.

A low point in swell is due Sunday morning but winds should swing offshore out of the N/NE through the morning, tending variable into the afternoon.

Size wise the Mornington Peninsula should be around 3ft, 1-2ft or so on the Surf Coast, but a new, inconsistent and very westerly angled groundswell is due to build through the afternoon.

The source of this swell was a strong though distant and northerly positioned mid-latitude low, moving east through the southern Indian Ocean, and now weakening south-west of Western Australia.

Due to the distance between us and the swell, its alignment and the westerly direction of the swell, it'll be really inconsistent, building Sunday afternoon and likely reaching 4-5ft on the sets late with 2ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets.

Monday will see the swell easing from a similar size under a light to moderate N/NW breeze, tending variable into the afternoon (N/NE on the Mornington Peninsula).

We're now looking at fresher N-N/NE winds developing on Tuesday as a mid-latitude low develops south of WA, stalling through the Bight while slowly weakening early next week.

Size wise the surf will be tiny on the Surf Coast Tuesday, with easing 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

N/NE winds should persist Wednesday though with a low point in energy early, increasing into the afternoon with the arrival of a new, inconsistent mid-period SW swell.

The source of this swell will be a short-lived polar front firing up east of Heard Island this afternoon, generating a burst of W/SW gales before weakening through tomorrow.

Inconsistent sets to 2ft+ are likely late afternoon on the Surf Coast (3ft sets on the magnets), 3-4ft+ to the east, similar Thursday morning but with a shift in winds to the NW ahead of an afternoon SW change.

This change looks to be ahead of an increase in Southern Ocean frontal activity that at this stage it looks to be less than favourably aligned initially before pulling more into alignment the following weekend.

A great pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales should generate a good swell for Friday ahead of more activity the following week. Winds look an issue though as high pressure moves in after the fronts, bringing onshore S winds, but more on this Monday. Have a good weekend!