Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st May)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday on the beaches, Tuesday for experienced surfers, Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mix of swells tomorrow but with a good reinforcing SW swell for the PM, a touch smaller Sun with a W/SW swell
• Local, morning offshore winds, tending N/NE tomorrow PM and NE Sun PM
• Easing surf Mon with strengthening N/NE winds
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Tue with strong N winds, easing Wed with strong N/NW tending SW winds

Recap

Fun, clean 2ft waves on the Surf Coast yesterday as the swell from earlier in the week continued to ease, 2-3ft to the east with favourable winds in the morning. Winds shifted onshore into the afternoon and hints of new swell were seen later, peaking today to a good though slightly inconsistent 4ft+ on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east.

Conditions were favourable across most locations and should remain so most of the day as winds become variable.

This weekend and next week (May 22 - 28)

The mix of swells for this morning have peaked on the Cape Sorell wave buoy off Tasmania and from here we'll see the size ease a touch this afternoon, smaller into tomorrow morning.

A reinforcing SW swell is due through the day though from pre-frontal W/NW gales moving under the country yesterday and early this morning. While oblique to our swell window the strength should help provide a good reinforcing pulse of SW swell for tomorrow, peaking through the afternoon.

Size wise we should see 3ft waves all day on the Surf Coast with possibly the rare bigger one on the magnets into the afternoon, 4-5ft to the east with the possible bigger one again with the incoming tide.

Conditions should be favourable most of the day with light to moderate, local morning offshore winds, possibly tending N/NW for a period late morning on the Mornington Peninsula but back to the N/NE through the afternoon.

Sunday should see the reinforcing W/SW swell fill in from a smaller, tighter fetch of W/SW winds, though it'll be under the size of tomorrow afternoon's pulse, likely only to the 2-3ft range across the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east. Winds will be good through the morning and locally offshore again, shifting NE into the afternoon, favouring the beaches.

Monday looks best on the exposed beaches with easing surf and strengthening N/NE winds. The Surf Coast looks to ease from 2ft+ with 3-4ft sets on the peninsula.

We then look at the inconsistent though strong W/SW groundswell due Tuesday with strengthening and tricky N winds.

The low linked to the swell developed around the Heard Island and is generating a great fetch of storm-force W/SW winds in our far swell window while projecting slowly east-northeast.

Once south-west of WA the low will project more north-east while weakening, out of our swell window with the swell due to travel towards us, arriving overnight Monday and building Tuesday towards a peak into the afternoon.

The swell should build to an inconsistent but good 3-4ft on the Surf Coast with 5ft sets likely on the swell magnets, 6ft to the east with the odd 8ft cleanup. Expect long waits between sets and rubber up with the strong wind.

Conditions will be tricky though as the remnants of the low pushes through the Bight, squeezing a strong high in the Tasman, bringing strong N winds, tending N/NE at times.

Wednesday will see the low pushing east bringing strong N/NW tending W/SW winds as the swell eases in size.

At this stage the backside of the low isn't expected to bring much in the way of new swell with a weak polar front projecting towards us bringing a mid-period S/SW swell for Friday/Saturday. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!