Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 23rd November)

Best Days: Exposed beaches Wednesday, Thursday afternoon for keen and experienced surfers, Friday

Recap

Not the greatest weekend of surf with lighter winds and smaller, easing swells from the strong event seen late last week. Those with low expectations had the most fun, and this morning the surf remains small, slow and weakish from the west with clean conditions on the Surf Coast.

This week and weekend (Nov 24 - 29)

A small, infrequent, mid-period W/SW swell that's breaking on the coast today will ease into tomorrow and winds will be generally onshore out of the SW. The Surf Coast should see pockets of light, dawn W/NW winds but with the tiny surf, it'll be a lay day for all locations.

Our small pulse of mid-period SW swell for Wednesday is on track, as are the better conditions.

A small, relatively weak and late forming low developed in our swell window yesterday and it's generated a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds. A fun pulse of swell is expected, arriving late tomorrow and peaking Wednesday morning with 2ft+ sets due on the Surf Coast (likely odd 3ft'er on the magnets for the patient), 3-4ft generally to the east with the possible odd bigger one.

Conditions should be clean with light morning offshore winds (N/NE on the Mornington Peninsula, N/NW on the Surf Coast), holding until mid-afternoon ahead of late afternoon sea breezes.

We then look at the larger, stronger W/SW groundswell due into the end of the week again.

There are a few similarities to last week's system, but also a few differences.

The low won't 'bomb' like last week's but it'll deepen and form within a trough drifting south-east from the Indian Ocean, strengthening south-west of WA and in a more southerly position, more in our western swell window. It'll also project with strength towards us, producing a more consistent, larger swell event, with a touch less period (though still strong)

An initial fetch of W/SW gales are forecast to be projected towards us, with a secondary intensification of severe-gales generated under South Australia on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, on top an active sea state. This will help create a large, strong pulse of swell Thursday afternoon/evening.

The low will weaken while tracking across Tasmania, with the swell due to build rapidly and strongly Thursday afternoon, peaking overnight and easing gradually through Friday and further into the weekend.

Size wise the surf will be small early, but the Surf Coast should build to 4-6ft later Thursday (4ft protected spots and 5-6ft on the magnets), with 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from 4-5ft and 6-8ft respectively on Friday.

Conditions on Thursday unfortunately look bumpy (though workable) as a trough attached to the weakening low moves through before dawn, bringing moderate to sometimes fresh SW winds, swinging more S/SW and S'ly late in the day.

A high will quickly move in behind this trough for Friday, swinging winds around to the NE-N/NE during the morning. This will see conditions improve through the morning, though possibly still being a bit uneven early, becoming bumpy into the afternoon with sea breezes.

Saturday is looking dicey as another trough moves in, likely bringing SW tending SE winds, similar Sunday as yet another trough moves through. There may be a window of variable winds Sunday morning but we'll have to review this on Wednesday.

Behind the trough on Sunday, a slow moving polar low is forecast to be dragged up towards us, bringing a moderate sized + swell for early-mid next week, but more on this Wednesday.