Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 6th November)

Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow afternoon, selected spots Sunday morning, Monday, Tuesday

Recap

Poor conditions with a building SW groundswell yesterday, though there was nowhere to really surf with quality.

This morning the swell has eased a touch back to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 5-6ft to the east and a morning W/NW breeze has created cleaner conditions in protected spots. Winds will shift onshore late morning/midday and a late pulse of new swell should maintain similar sized surf.

This weekend and next week (Nov 7 - 13)

We've got a mixed weekend of surf with no lack of swell, even too much for Sunday morning when winds improve a touch, but generally conditions will be bumpy and onshore.

A broad, strong polar frontal system that's currently pushing towards us, under the country will bring an onshore change during today, with lingering moderate to fresh S'ly winds due across the state tomorrow.

This will create average conditions and spoil a mix of swells. The first, which is due later today was generated by a strengthening polar frontal system ahead of the current storm, and should keep the Surf Coast around 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the swell magnets, 5-6ft to the east.

The swell from the front proper is due tomorrow afternoon with a kick to 4ft+ due on the Surf Coast, 6ft to occasionally 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, then easing slowly Sunday from 4ft and 6ft+ respectively.

Winds are due to ease and swing E'ly Sunday morning but with the size of the swell, options will be limited.

Next week is looking much better as a high moves in from the west and a low forms in the Bight, driving persistent but strengthening winds from the north-east quadrant.

The swell will slowly ease in size through early next week, helped by a reinforcing pulse of mid-period SW swell Monday. This will be generated by the wagging tail of the strong frontal progression currently moving under the country. A fetch of broad W/NW winds will move through our swell window tomorrow morning, followed by less favourable and weaker NW winds.

Looking at the expected size and the Surf Coast should hold around 3ft most of Monday with 4-5ft sets to the east. There may still be the odd sneaky one in the mix but expect surf mostly around this size.

Tuesday will become smaller with easing 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast 3-4ft to the east then bottoming out Wednesday.

Coming back to the winds and a moderate to fresh NE-N/NE breeze is expected Monday morning, holding until mid-afternoon and likely E/SE-SE after, with stronger N/NE winds Tuesday, holding all day.

With the swell bottoming out Wednesday and the strong mid-latitude low from the Bight nearing closer, strong N'ly winds will create poor to average surfing conditions. So make the most of Monday/Tuesday.

No decent swell is due from the low as it moves east Thursday, with all of its energy being aimed into South Australia, north of our swell window. By the time it crosses us it's forecast to be much weaker, with a small W'ly swell possibly showing later Thursday, easing Friday with W'ly winds, but more on this Monday.

Following this there's nothing significant on the cards, so make the most of the coming waves. Have a great weekend!