Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 4th November)

Best Days: Protected spots Friday morning, selected spots Sunday morning, Monday and Tuesday

Recap

Tiny, clean waves with hot weather across the Surf Coast yesterday, only small but fun with 2ft sets hanging in on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island.

Today winds are a little more variable ahead of an approaching change with sets just hanging in at 1-2ft on the Mornington Peninsula, tiny elsewhere.

This week and next (Nov 5 - 11)

Our good, though initially inconsistent SW groundswell event is on the way, with it due to arrive later today but fill in proper tomorrow, becoming more consistent and peaking into the afternoon.

The slow moving nature of the polar low that generated the swell and it's prolonged lifetime will see the size holding nicely into Friday morning ahead of reinforcing swells into the afternoon and through the weekend.

The only issue for tomorrow is strong S/SW winds left in the wake of a trough moving through today, spoiling the swell as it builds to 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft across the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday morning should be cleaner and fun across protected spots with a W/NW-W'ly breeze, shifting back to the SW late morning. Size wise, the swell will likely ease a touch, dropping back to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east.

Our reinforcing mid-period SW swell for the late afternoon is on track, keeping similar sized waves to the morning hitting the state, generated by a polar front developing south of WA this morning. A fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW tending W'ly winds will be produced through our swell window, making the swell.

The swell should hold Saturday morning ahead of the third, reinforcing pulse of mid-period SW swell fills in later in the day, easing Sunday.

This third swell will be generated by a strengthening storm south of the country tomorrow morning, with pre-frontal W/NW winds followed by a better fetch of post-frontal strong to gale-force W/SW winds.

The strength of this third storm has been downgraded a touch, with the size likely to hold 4ft on the sets late in the day across the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east, easing slowly Sunday from 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively.

Unfortunately winds on Saturday will be poor as a trough linked to this final storm moves through Friday afternoon, leaving strong but easing S'ly winds on Saturday, improving slightly Sunday and tending E/SE-E through the morning, fresh SE into the afternoon.

Early next week, for the relaxing of restrictions is still looking really fun with a high due to move in, swinging winds around to the N/NE-NE on Monday morning (E/NE afternoon) as the swell from Sunday slowly eases.

This easing trend will be slowed by secondary polar frontal activity moving in along the polar shelf through the weekend. It won't be ideally aimed but it should keep fun waves hitting the exposed beaches.

Size wise we'll be looking at surf to 3ft or so on the Surf Coast Monday, easing from 2ft to possibly 3ft Tuesday, with 4-5ft sets to the east Monday, easing from 4ft Tuesday.

Winds on Tuesday will remain favourable and stronger from the N/NE, with a change on the cards Wednesday. More on this Friday though.