Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 7th October)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday afternoon Surf Coast for the keen, Saturday morning, Monday morning, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning

Recap

Terrible conditions across all locations yesterday with a strong onshore wind and building S/SW swell, better this morning though solid on the beaches to the east and to 4-6ft, with surf around 4ft on the Surf Coast. Lighter easterly winds are creating improving conditions on the beaches.

We'll see the S/SW swell easing through the day as winds remain light ahead of late afternoon SE sea breezes.

This week and weekend (Oct 8 - 11)

Looking at tomorrow and we've got a dynamic day of weather and winds as a moisture laden mid-latitude low drifts south-east across us, bringing rain and gusty NE tending strong NW winds. This change in direction looks to occur late morning and we'll be seeing a mix of easing S/SW swell and small SE windswell from strong E winds through Bass Strait.

The Surf Coast should ease from a peaky 2-3ft, with 4ft sets to the east.

On the backside of the low, the windswell pegged for Friday looks more mid-period energy with a better fetch of broader and stronger W/SW winds due to be generated through our swell window Friday.

The swell looks tiny early, building rapidly through the day and reaching 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets into the afternoon and 4-6ft to the east. Winds should hold out of the W/NW through the morning, shifting W-W/SW into the afternoon as the swell builds.

We're then expected to see the mid-period energy ease on Saturday as a new, long-period W/SW groundswell takes its place.

This initial, long-range swell won't be especially sizey or consistent with it generated in our far swell window and a little too north than ideal. As a result inconsistent sets to 2-3ft are most likely on the Surf Coast magnets, 4-5ft to the east but with more favourable N/NW winds in the morning.

A fresh SW change is due early afternoon as a weak trough moves through, reverting back to the W/NW on Sunday morning. The swell looks to lose a touch of size and consistency Sunday and it'll be on the small side across the Surf Coast.

Next week onwards (Oct 12 onwards)

Our stronger and larger W/SW groundswell for Monday is on track, with a more significant, broader and closer projecting fetch of W/SW gales due to move through our swell window. The storm is currently forming in the Heard Island region and will project on the back of the active sea state generated by the front linked to Saturday's swell.

It'll weaken south-west of WA early Friday, with the swell travelling towards us on the weekend, arriving overnight Sunday and peaking Monday. The Surf Coast should see inconsistent 4-5ft sets on the magnets with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with what looks to be variable morning NW winds ahead of SE sea breezes.

The swell is due to ease temporarily into Tuesday morning with N/NE winds, favouring the beaches but sets are likely still to be around 4-6ft, 3ft+ on the Surf Coast.

A follow up W/SW groundswell is on the cards for the afternoon though, generated by a strong, tight low forming on the back of the broad polar front. The models diverge a little on the strength of this system but we'll likely see a kick in size similar to that of Monday's swell (if not slightly bigger) and with more period. Winds look to persist out of the N/NE into Wednesday as it starts to ease, but more on all of this in Friday's update.