Great run for the beaches
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th September)
Best Days: Friday from mid-morning on the beaches, Saturday, Sunday, Monday
Recap
Large surf yesterday and this morning with reinforcing pulses of long-period SW groundswell between 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east, cleanest in protected spots yesterday ahead of weak sea breezes, clean across all locations this morning.
Winds will shift more N/NW this afternoon ahead of a late S'ly change linked to a trough, so make the most of it.
This week and next (Sep 17 – 25)
In the wake of the trough late this afternoon we'll see onshore winds out of the S-S/SE tomorrow morning (only light to moderate), but then freshening from the S/SE-SE into the afternoon.
The swell will ease further, dropping from 3ft+ or so on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.
Friday looks smaller again with the size easing back to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east but a high moving in from the west should swing winds around to the east. At dawn winds look to the E-E/SE'ly, shifting more E/NE through the morning ahead of SE sea breezes.
Moving into the weekend and our good S/SW groundswell and favourable winds are still on track, with a slight upgrade in the expected sized Saturday.
A strengthening polar fetch of elongated W/NW tending W'ly gales will push in and under the country today and tomorrow. Following this another low drifting south-east from the Indian Ocean will strengthen but the fetch will be NW and less favourably aligned for us. There'll still likely be some small swell radiating out from this, but not to the size of Saturday's pulse.
Coming back to later Friday and we may see some new S/SW energy showing across the coast but the bulk is due Saturday with great 3-4ft sets due on the Surf Coast (likely peaking into the afternoon), 4-6ft to the east.
Winds look great and moderate to fresh out of the N/NE, possibly holding all day if not tending more E/NE-E through the afternoon.
Stronger N/NE winds are due Sunday morning, shifting N/NW into the afternoon but possibly holding out of the N east of Melbourne as the S/SW swell starts to ease from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively.
Later in the day the less favourably aligned and smaller reinforcing S/SW groundswell is due, easing Monday from an inconsistent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east. Winds look to be out of the N/NW all day, favouring the Surf Coast and Phillip Island.
As touched on in Monday's update, the longer term outlook isn't great and revolves around mid-latitude storm activity moving in from the west. This looks to take the form of a strong mid-latitude low, though sitting too far north of us to generate any significant swell at this stage, then moving in from the west Tuesday bringing with it low quality westerly energy. Check back here Friday for a clearer idea on next week's developments.
Comments
Can't beat the last 2 days, best for ages tho crowded
classic conditions on the surf coast
For the SC locals, how would you compare crowds of last couple of days versus April/May/June, when Melbourne crew were allowed to head down also?
Genuine question here too - not trying to start an argument!
Well there’s 40 guys out winki now!
Definitely busier back then Dx3. I reckon a lot of it was due to warmer Autumn conditions as much as no restrictions. However, the mental increase in the local population is the main cause IMO and not so much people travelling from Melbourne and beyond. Everyone down here is a 'surfer' in 2020.
Up until the late 90's you couldn't give away a house in Jan Juc and now every cunt wants to live here! Biggest pain in the arse for me in the water here is people who've been here 5 to 10 years and think they're running the show. Started surfing as adults when they moved here and on any given 2 - 5ft day will be elbow to elbow with ya trying to hassle the next wave. Not so much on days like today and yesterday.
'Nth' Torquay, Armstrong Creek etc..........would love to see the ground open up and swallow those suburban shit holes where houses take up 90% of each tiny block and spew their occupants into the surf on any given day.
So true re new "locals" ringmaster. A mutual 60 year old red headed friend was giving one of the new locals both barrels in the line up today. I knew this bloke had a beast lurking just below the surface, but I do feel better after seeing it explode!!
Haha love the comment about the houses taking up 90% of the block. Happening all over, Melbourne especially. I can't get my head around why people keep buying these blocks and building cheap as fuck pop up cardboard mcmansions that go all the way to the back fence bar 5m of grass or pebbles. Fuck I hate those houses.
Ugly!
As someone who grew up in Jan Juc on 5 acres and now lives in Armstrong Creek in a house that takes up 90% of the block it was a simple choice really, the median house price in our coastal towns is far too high and I would prefer to not be in debt for the rest of my life. The community is well serviced especially compared to Jan Juc and life ain't that bad at the swamp. I still surf before work on more days than most surfers when there is waves and I have more dispensable income for travel and replacing snapped boards.
I can't understand why people will pay 900+k for a fibro shack in Juc
Yeh i get that mate, my comment was more in general about the new obsession of people buying land or old homes to demolish, then building a house that literally takes up nearly every square inch of the block. Down your way it ain't so bad to do that, you've got the ocean on your doorstep. Back up in the burbs it's rampant too and they are all cookie cutter houses with zero outdoor area. Dunno why you'd do that to yourself if you had/planned on having kids.
We love our serenity here in the Bool. Almost don't even wanna say that on here because i know what the crowds are like on the Surf Coast, lived there 5 years and I don't want everyone to know how good it is in Warrnambool, absolute gem of a spot. World class break at Japs (rip ya head off!) lefts and rights, beachies inside the bay which does enjoy protection from SW winds and has a clean refracted wave off the breakwater when the raw southern ocean swell is maxed out elsewhere. And every house in Warrnambool is no more than a 10min drive, it's affordable, air is fresh, just hours of fun.
Too late! You've said it now.
Will move there shortly.
Very true comments. The "locals" being people who moved into the SC and Bellarine in the last 5-10 years give all a bad name. The majority are well manned but there are elements who are absolute assholes in the water who are also teaching their kids the same attitude to have. I recently observed a group of kids write"locals only" at my local break....funny thing is i recall their parents only moving here in the last 5 years from Melbourne as no one else can afford a house in BH anymore. These are the same "local" that love hassling the Melb surfers. Wake up dickheads...just cause you have a local surf sticker on your car and have your licence say you now live on the coast doesn't make you a local. Your poo man stances are also a blatant give away. The only true locals lived here hundreds of years ago.
Amen.. 'Locals only' would only apply if some aborigines sprayed that bitumen at 13th.. One things for certain at any local break, if you lack a healthy respect for the 'locals', line up and environment, you're out of touch and should stick to the $80 session at Tullamarine. Take a leaf from the humble Indonesian and their overcrowded beaches (typically with expats claiming as their own) - wear a smile, surf better and let that angry baggage go. Frowns make you look older. Angry beaches are shit beaches.
...and their descendants, of those that lived here hundreds of years ago, they're still here, some of em carve too!
I am moving to Portland ..this is just the start it will double again in 2 years ..she's gone.. 10 years ago a cold winters day would see 5 to 10 at immpossos mid week.. better wetsuits too now
Pt Impossible! Ha!
Haven't surfed there this century. The ground zero of clueless adult learners on mals, Torquay Nth 'locals' and Armstrong Creek punters cutting their reef teeth. Pity the poor old 'good old boys' who used to be able to surf it relatively uncrowded as they eke out their final surfing years.
Re: Point Impossible.
"Used to be pretty mellow here until fuckin' developers built Wombah Park and South Beach estates. Now it is the domain of "iv'e moved to the coast from Melbourne and i'm gunna learn to surf on a mal at a soft reef break". There's progress for ya!"
Wannasurf.com - March, 2003.
Seventeen and a half years ago.
Haha
Looking forward to a SN article:
'The best of Wannasurf comments - a somewhat shameful look at the development of online surf arguements'
Only disappointing thing is that there's no repository of community commentary pre-early 2000's.
Because, I an guarantee the same things would have been said to some degree in the early 90's, and the early 80's, etc.
Ah the comedy which is lost to the ages!
I guess you could piece together the letters to the editor from old mags...it would be the same stuff for sure...
Maybe the odd Tracks letters section?
Anyway there was Tracks' "SOLD - your coast carved up for cash" edition sometime in the early 00s,
when blocks on Philip Island priced in the teens iirc!
.... 70's and the 60's and not much more beyond that, and the young nature of this sport is part of it's appeal.
I'm 42, boogie boarders were doing most of the aerial work in the 90's while surfing was a carve hard rail game. Now we have ocean crosses on foils! It's mad.
First and foremost it should be fun. The community aspect of surfing comes from looking out for each other and sharing in each other's thrills and spills, of which there are plenty. Go get some!
Ha, Wombah Park. That would have been developed mid 80s or thereabouts.
Had to chuckle reading the above comments.
There's always something to complain about isn't there! If it's not Melbourne surfers, it's 'new locals'.
You know, some of these new locals are probably actually good crew. And believe or not, 'true locals' were once new locals, or their folks were!
Maybe it's time we agreed 'local' should almost be devoid of the 'distance to surf' definition. To surfers, a local is usually a respected, somewhat honorable regular surfer who knows the joint in and out and is there pretty much most days and at least every say 7 out of 10 good days.
Giving in to the idea that you're a local just cos you live in Torquay - meaning you get rights to more waves and are able to burn new faces - simply leads to the creation of people like NorthSouthWest....which frankly nobody wants.
Well said Stok
agreed, if locals want to be respected then you should all lead by example!
agree with this sentiment.
white crew calling themselves local and claiming ownership makes me feel pretty uncomfortable also.
there'd be bugger all with history beyond their parents.
in a lot of other surf countries that wouldn't get you close.
Yeah it is first and foremost, bloody good fun!! and the community aspect comes from sharing in each other's thrills and spills, of which there are plenty. Go get some!
Surf Coast Population
1996 - 18K
2011 - 26K
2020 - 32K
2029 - 40K (forecast)
2036 - 46K (forecast)
So the population has basically doubled in the last 24 years. The Shire forecast it to grow by another 44% in the next 16 years. The growth rates for the Jan Juc / Torquay area are much higher than the Shire in total. (Some of the historical satellite imagery which shows the expansion of the housing states is a sad site).
In a short period of time, the place has changed dramatically. I can't see it slowing down anytime soon as there is so much available land for expansion and greed and "economic growth" always wins in these scenarios. We are now also seeing the ability for high paying "knowledge" jobs which used to require close proximity to a large city having greater flexibility to work remotely (some of these COVID changes are going to stick) which is going to allow more people to move to regional areas. I just pray that we get some sensible decisions around tracks of land closer to areas like Bells Beach but I don't like the odds.
My family has owned a house in Torquay since 1978 (Melbourne residents). It is now almost unrecognisable to my childhood memories of spending 10+ weeks a year there.
p.s. If you pay rates for 40+ years ... are you a considered a local :)
We went in depth a little more here:
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2020/05/21/the-populatio...
Add a Zero for Geelong and the region around the Surf Coast and 5 or 6 million up the froggin toad
1996 - 180K
2011 - 260K
2020 - 320K
2029 - 400K (forecast)
2036 - 460K (forecast)
I reckon everyone is overthinking this "local" thing. Time in the water counts. How you behave in the water matters. Where you live, or where you were born, means fuck all.
My first surf on the SC was in the early 90s, and a few years ago some teenage cunt told me I was a blowin because I wasn't born here.
Here's the conversation:
VL: who the fuck are you
The tubby little fucker: I live here.
VL: Listen here you tubby little fucker. I've surfed here a decade longer than you've been alive. You show up a few months ago and now you're playing the "I was born here card".
Tubby little fucker: I WAS born here so that makes me a local.
VL: Whatever mate, let's see how far that attitude gets you.
End of conversations.
Kids these days.*
*Angry old man yells at cloud.
Wannasurf comments, some of the best gold dust on the net
I just read in the Age that Melbourne crew caught outside in regional areas as of tomorrow risk an approx 5K fine!!! That’s a huge risk!
Coppers were out again at Bells / Winki.
Not sure if they were checking IDs but they were dropping "Don't leave your valuables in your car" notes under windscreen wipers.
$5K is a big price to pay, but the last thing we need is to fuck it up in the final stretch.
The were at Sorrento back beach Monday night
there are a lot of melbourne crew at their holiday pads on mornington peninsula now the police are ignoring it ,fucking disgraceful that we are once again being used as the dumping ground for these rich pricks.Obviously it is one of the reasons they included us in melb metro so all the lawyers etc can come and go as they please ,bringing the virus from melbourne and making everything crowded and shit like summer ,over these crap rules
Dan really has it in for us, collateral damage since day one. Could’ve at least increased the fine to $5k for us too, that’ll keep the day trippers away at least
A lot more cops out cutting laps of the coast today. I expect they’ll be keeping it up through school holidays to try and keep a lid on it.
On a brighter note, waves pumped this arvo.
Pulsed again and went light onshore about 5.45 just as I was wrapping up the 2nd session.
Good vibes in the water too!
You've done well RM: It was a big three days. I put the board in the rack after a long morning surf and had an afternoon nap. Back to onshores tomorrow. Good time to catch up on work and rest the shoulders.
You lucky bastards. I've been out for 2 weeks with the old crook back. And I missed that good Saturday 3 weeks ago to boot.
If there's one take home message from this it has definitely been the (very generally) more mellow vibe in the water since Melbourne got locked up. That's not to say all Melbourne surfers are to blame for aggro etc, but perhaps the combination of a) needing to get their fill to make the drive worth it; plus b) the extra crowd bringing out the inner caarnt in various local crew with lower thresholds hasn't been driving things to the edge as much. Either way, there have ben some very pleasant surfs at name breaks during Stage 4.
The locals issue is a beauty. I agree with VL, it's largely about your attitude in the water. But this new learner thing that's been on steroids since covid is seriously getting out of hand in a few places - the number of mature-age learners on logs and other craft is making a few places downright dangerous. I'm reluctant to take my youngest out at Torquay Point any more, there are simply too many 20-40yo muppets - male and female - who have never bothered to think it through, take off on everything, bail boards, run people over, it's a complete zoo. I've patched more dings on my wife's mals from kook collisions since last summer than in the last 5 years. Mind you, if you have the patience it can be mildly entertaining....but sooner or later someone's going to get seriously hurt. And they're not just at Torquay Point anymore, they're moving further afield. I hardly surf the name breaks from Cup weekend to March due to the muppet factor. A real shame.
I get the giggles looking at it, seeing the tide is completely wrong for the place, and seeing it packed with a crew completely oblivious to this.
Can’t really blame everyone down that way taking up surfing if they didn’t do it already. Great breaks right on their doorstep, absolutely nothing else to do as everything is shut and sport is cancelled, plus once they catch their first wave - hooked for life like the rest of us.
Just the start in terms of crowds considering population growth.
Great waves today no doubt. Curious about the Torquay rating of 7 this morning. Surely today would have been at least an 8. Yesterday early report was 8 but (then 7) but I thought it was a bit too wonky generally to get anything like 8 in comparison with today. Maybe 6, although it was bigger. I was a bit further down the coast not in Torquay. I am not trying to be critical of the reporter as I think they do a pretty good job generally. Any thoughts?
I think you’re thinking about a surf report too much.
I think you're right Trist.
VL well said on the "local" thing. I've surfed SC since the 80's and move around a lot depending on tide, wind, swell etc.. so don't spend all my time at any break, am i a local??.
Re Crowds, lived at gold coast for 6 months last year, dribbly swells, 100+ out at just about every break all of em faster and fitter than me, so I don't complain about crowds here anymore.
Peeled off one Tuesday with the biggest grin on my face for ages, that's the feeling we're all chasing. There's always someone in the lineup that's pissing you off but there's always deep or wide or inside sets, score and enjoy where you can and chase that feeling. It's good to have 1st world problems to whinge about.
Maybe people should be painting 'Non arseholes only' instead.
At least on the surf coast you get quality waves with frustrating crowds, imagine living over in cowards cove, terrible, terrible waves, 50 + people in the water, mercury ridden cold creek water, no sun in winter, wealthy of wealthiest pretend farmers, 90% of the surfers in the water would be blow ins, sups coming out of your ass, knee boarding Malibu surfers, kook dads who use to be average surfers now trying to make there kids pro surfers swimming around like maimed seals, every try hard hipsters from Arthurs Seat to St Kilda who think there in Byron Bay buzzing around like bearded blow flies in their hipster buses.
I recon you have it pretty good on the SC.
Describes the honeysuckle scene pretty much spot on
Ah yes the bay of cowards with the crown jewel being Petticoat Point.
Masterful prose, nominated for Swellnet Post of the Year.
I do love a masterful prose. Prose on the nose.
Cops ain’t doing jack shit about the city people down here. Maybe cause they city people in city now? Get f’ed. The weekend hordes will probably use the cover of today’s greyness too get on down. City to city.
firm up on the hardness big bone, would've I been filling my wombat hair yesterday. I've given myself trowel arm after yesterday.
Judging by some of the comments I’ve seen in last few days on social media the highways will be blocked by vigilantes by weekend haha. Most of holiday homes owners have been down since July anyway, it’s the punters sneaking in from Casey and Dandenong hotspots to hit the beach we need to worry about
What is the go? are these people just planning on saying they have been down since the beginning of the lockdown and the cops can’t prove they haven’t been or are cops not interested as it’s never been a hotspot , The socio economic group we are talking about would see any possible fines as way cheaper than their typical overseas September school holidays anyway I guess
I don’t think they have the numbers of police down here to do anything about it, they are all standing on the side of the road on the way to Geelong
Update: apparently standing under shelter on the road to Geelong as it’s raining watching 1000s of cars stream past. What a shitshow
Fuck me, pathetic if true. The big bad ring of steel obviously isn't waterproof. Laughable.
Interesting, on the site it seems like a gaping loop hole "For people with more than one ordinary place of residence, your place of residence as of 11:59pm on Saturday 1 August must remain your principal place of residence".... I guest they could ask why you haven't you changed your address?
I guess it’s triage..Blokes island and the Local coast are the priority...the hoax coast isnt
Apparently the cops are more inclined to give fines to people who have driven 7km from Rye to Rosebud Aldi to shop because they have lost work and are trying to save money on food rather than chasing down the covid riddled speedo wearing yacht clubbing knoblets hiding in there Mummy and Daddys Beach homes.
you've just described my client target group
Ha ha me too
Never look a gift horse in the speedos
Dirty, drizzly onshore today and crap wind for the next couple of days. This.............after such an epic day yesterday.
Quite frankly, I'm outraged!
Who can I blame???
Dictator Dan obviously!
Just had beetroot in a rap. First time ever. Love that shit, thought I hated it.
Get use to sneaking around MP crew, from the abc blog-
Reporter: In terms of the Mornington Peninsula, is there any hope that they can be moved along a little bit faster than the rest of Metropolitan Melbourne?
Daniel Andrews: We're not doing suburb or postcode specific local government specific at time.
I want to be very clear, we have the local member down there, he is a constant advocate making sure that that checkpoint is as active as possible and I think the Victoria Police went directly to this yesterday.
Obviously with school holidays coming up and better weather, it is a beautiful part of our state, one that I have spent much time and over many years and they can understand why people want to go down there in the school holidays or for a day trip and the notion of sneaking down there to stay at a second residence, at this time that is just not on.
But what about the permanent residents of the MP. They can't travel beyond 5km unless they are single and therefore able to form a social bubble with someone anywhere in metro Melbourne.
Married couples like my wife and I are still restricted.
Andrews really is an inflexible inconsiderate arrogant prick.
Dan the man faces a vote of no confidence..
"Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien will introduce a motion of no confidence in Mr Andrews in parliament on Thursday."
From the Australian newspaper
I've got to say - I was on side with Dan early on for most of his decisions....Not sure I am anymore - and I'm one of the lucky ones.
Full sympathies go out to the city dwellers and also MP crew.
You guys have been doing it tough.
The motion will of course fail, but it at least has some widespread community support.
The next motion of no confidence will be at the ballot box, State and Federal.
I’d love to knock that cunts spectacles clean off his smug little face
Not defending Dan, but you got any faith in the opposition GF? Michael O'Brien comes across as a whiny little twat.
I reckon the last two comments sum up the state of conservative politics in Australia perfectly.
Abbott set the standard in opposition. He knew how to get punters to hate, and the target was Gillard.
O'Brien / Jones / Smith / Sky News / Bolt et al aren't wasting this crisis, and are ratcheting up the hate on Andrews. goofyfoot's comment shows us how the haters think. Angry, violent and proud of it.
Rather than developing an alternative policy platform, O'Brien is just "a whiny little twat" and his colleagues are even worse. God help us if the Libs get back into power in Victoria because they are simply not prepared to govern. It will be Abbott mark 2 for Victoria. Australia voted in a truly pathetic PM who did nothing but whine in opposition and he didn't last 2 years as PM. O'Brien would be lucky to last that long.
Not proud of it you idiot, try being in stage 4 and see how you’re thinking after all this time.
This is actually less political than you think. Both extremes of the media are just white noise.
Frankly I wouldn't care which leader, or political party came up with this farce. We've had the longest, and one of the most extreme lock downs in the world. We're seeing the slow destruction of our economy and one of the world's best cities.
The pathway to re-opening is simply too ambitious, and borderlines on fantasy.
It also doesn't, and will never, protect us against another f@#k up by our public service, which could at any second create a third wave.
When we opened up in June the hospitality industry were proactive and tracked peoples details....we had people sitting indoors and social distancing without masks. No outbreaks.
Fast forward to September and we're now likely to see only outdoor dining with masks for the forseeable future, solely due to a second wave caused by botched hotel quarantine and spread through abattoirs, aged care and other process line workplaces where policy was ignored.
Tell me how this could have been handled any worse!?
Wouldn’t have a clue who he is icandig.
I just see that fuckwit Andrews on tv talking absolute bullshit everyday.
Oh here you go Victoria, have an extra 1 hour of the day when you’re not under a curfew and it’s illegal to leave your house.. there you go see how generous I am.
ffs he is a disgrace
Before you chime in viclocal get fucked I’m sick of being dictated to by this cockhead
Edit. Sorry for speaking like that. Just had enough. Starting to get to me now not being able to see sick family members who I may not get to see again
Kind of what prompted my first post GF. I have a son in Melb who I haven't seen for a couple of months now. His drivers licence still has our address on it. He was thinking of running the gauntlet just to get away for a bit. Five Grand is too steep a penalty to pay though. Even though I haven't been surfing (ear problems) at least I have space to roam. I'm starting to get a sense of the frustration you guys must be feeling. I'd be climbing the fucking walls by now. I'm not really much of a political animal, both of them are giving me the shits right now though. But I do agree with VL to a degree - the politics of fear and attacking the man are not new but it just seems so much more transparent now. Fuck I hope it ends soon.
Don’t apologize mate, we’re all feeling the strain, it’s good to let the frustrations out rather than bottle it. Every time I hear that fuckers voice now makes me wish I could punch him too.
And I think the Vic libs are an absolute shit show rabble, doesn’t mean I don’t think Andrews is a fuckwit