Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 7th September)

Best Days: Exposed beaches dawn tomorrow, beaches Thursday, Friday and Satuday

Recap

Fun waves across all locations at stages through the weekend, best on the Surf Coast Saturday and to 2-3ft or so and much better on the beaches Sunday with cleaner conditions and easing surf from 4-6ft.

Today the swell has bottomed out, tiny on the Surf Coast and slow, windy though clean to the east.

This week and weekend (Sep 8 – 13)

With the weekend's swells reaching a low point we're not really expected to see any decent size building across the state until late tomorrow but more so Wednesday.

The forecast graphs are showing an uptick in energy for tomorrow but this will be very inconsistent, westerly and have no size to it, coming under the forecast size. Your best chance for a wave will be dawn on the beaches with a N'ly, shifting N/NW mid-late morning ahead of an afternoon SW change.

Size wise the Surf Coast will be lucky to offer 1-2ft sets, 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula, though we should see some new swell later in the day from a broad and slow moving frontal progression through the south-east Indian Ocean late last week and weekend.

This progression was in our far swell and western swell window, north in latitude and not ideal at all with the long-period and inconsistent energy due to kick later tomorrow but peak through Wednesday afternoon.

Some better mid-period energy will provide the more consistent and noticeable surf through Wednesday, generated by the remnants of the progression passing under WA last night and today.

A good fetch of strong to gale-force W'ly winds were produced last night, weakening while pushing east through the Bight today.

The swell from this source is expected on Wednesday and we should see surf reaching 3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 4-6ft to the east but a high moving in behind tomorrow afternoon's change will bring moderate, onshore S tending S/SE winds.

Thursday will become better for the beaches as the mix of westerly swells ease, dropping from an inconsistent 2-3ft and 4-5ft respectively. Winds will swing from the E/NE to NE, tending variable ahead of possible late SE sea breezes.

Friday will be clean all day on the beaches with a persistent N/NE breeze though the swell will be tiny to small on the Surf Coast, though a small, reinforcing mid-period W/SW swell should build to 3ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula into the afternoon.

Into the weekend a mix of swells are expected to fill in, firstly a very inconsistent long-period swell from the south-east Indian Ocean and secondly some S/SW groundswell deflecting off polar activity mid-late week.

The Indian Ocean energy will again be very west and generated too far north of our swell window with it expected to fill in Sunday and unlikely to get above 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 3-5ft to the east.

On Saturday a fun S/SW groundswell is due though, produced by the remnants of the storm tracking south-east and forming a polar low once south of WA. A fetch of W'ly gales will be produced, generating a short-lived S/SW pulse to 2ft to maybe 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east.

Winds look favourable for the beaches again Saturday and out of the north, though a trough looks to move through Sunday morning, bringing a S/SW change.

Longer term it looks like we'll finally see a closer and significant polar frontal progression firing up under the country through the weekend and early next week, generating larger and more consistent surf for the state. More on this Wednesday.