Less favourable swell sources but generally clean
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 31st August)
Best Days: Tuesday, keen and patient surfers Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, Friday morning Surf Coast, Saturday and Sunday
Recap
A great weekend of waves with Friday's large pulse of SW groundswell easing through Saturday with generally favourable winds, smaller Sunday under a tricky and stronger N'ly ahead of a mid-late afternoon NW change.
Today we've got onshore winds and an increase in lower quality swell across the state in the wake of a cold front. And that brings to an end one of the worst winters in a long-time on the Surf Coast, much better on the more exposed coasts across the state.
This week and weekend (Sep 1 – 6)
We've got fairly decent winds for the coming period but the swells will continue to come from mid-latitude storms and more out of the west than south-west.
The locally generated swell from the frontal system moving through yesterday evening will ease through tomorrow as another approaching mid-latitude frontal progression moves in from the west. This will bring moderate N'ly winds tomorrow, tending N/NW on the Surf Coast and N/NE to the east with easing 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4ft or so to the east.
Stronger N/NE tending N/NW winds will kick in Wednesday with a low point in swell through the morning ahead of a very inconsistent, building W/SW groundswell into the afternoon.
The source of this swell was a severe low in the southern Indian Ocean late last week and through the weekend, but the distance between us and the storm will result in a significant loss in consistency and size.
The Surf Coast should build slowly to an infrequent 2-3ft into the afternoon with 4-5ft sets to the east as winds tend N/NW as described above. The swell should ease from a similar and inconsistent size Thursday, mixed in with some new mid-period and closer-range W/SW energy.
This swell and a secondary pulse for Friday look tricky, with the source being the mid-latitude frontal progression moving in from Western Australia.
The structure of this progression looks average with it being quite broad and unconsolidated, generating fetches of unfavourably aligned W-W/NW winds. Thursday afternoon's pulse will be generated south of the Bight Wednesday and size wise, it looks unlikely to top 2ft to maybe 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft+ or so to the east along with N tending stronger NW winds. So hit the beaches early.
There's a small S/SW pulse due to be in the mix as well, generated by a brief burst of polar strong to gale-force W/SW winds south-southwest of Tassie tomorrow. The size attached to this looks similar to the W/SW swell.
Friday looks to offer similar sized surf to Thursday afternoon under NW tending W/SW winds.
Into the weekend a slightly better pulse of inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due, generated today and tomorrow by a distant low forming east of the Heard Island region. A good fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW-SW winds will be generated before the storm pushes up and on the tail of the mid-latitude frontal progression.
The swell should fill in Saturday and peak through the day to an inconsistent 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets with 4-6ft sets to the east. Conditions should be good across most breaks with a N/NW tending variable breeze, N/NE tending variable Sunday as the swell eases, but we'll review this on Wednesday.
Longer term we'll be relying on more mid-latitude westerly swell energy from activity pushing up and across Western Australia which isn't the best source of swell for the Surf Coast, but more on this next update.
Comments
Any insights to Dan’s roadmap out of Stage 4 Craigos? Perhaps these could be added to your notes!
Yes - bring it on!
We'll know a lot more on Sunday. My thinking is Melbourne and surrounds might get a bit more freedom come September 14. Allowed out of the house a bit more and a bigger region to explore.
But based on Andrews' comments today, travel to regional areas (e.g. Surf Coast) will be off for a while. Maybe until early or mid October?
That's all pure speculation mind you.
Hopefully the Tulla Tub can open during September. I'd even be happy to get in the Bay for a swim which I can't do at the moment as the closest beach is 6-7km away.
I'l reckon they'll wait til after school holidays to let people out into the regions again. Would make sense to not have open slather on travel for the school holidays given it's unlikely Melboune case numbers will be zero by then.
Agree with this and honestly as hard as it is, would be pretty bloody stupid to open the floodgates of travelers during school holidays. All that pent up desire to get out of the burbs and hit the regions, whilst there's still 2000 or so active cases - for the sake of limited future lockdowns I reckon we gotta wait until mid-October.
In fact government modeling I saw a few weeks back had us in stage 3 until December (which is no overnight stays, no visits to holidays homes etc), then back to stage 2. So it could be metro Melb goes to stage 3 and regional Vic goes to stage 2 in late September. Just gotta wait & see now.
It felt good to pull on some Neoprene again..
Certainly better than lycra.
VicLocal will have to call Surfing Off On the Surf Coast Now. Before it's too late.
https://timesnewsgroup.com.au/surfcoasttimes/news/torquay-north-woolwort...
dr-surf, this is a worry. Best case scenario is the infected staff member is a responsible person so the source and close contacts can be easily traced. Worst case scenario is the infected person is a highly social person, living in a big share house, and doesn't give a a shit about Covid 19.
The low levels of testing down here is a worry. Only 468 tests in the last two weeks and I'm tipping a shit load of them were medical professionals doing multiple tests. A couple of family members have called up to book a slot and were told to come in anytime.
Wouldn't it be sweet if we had a functional covid safe app for situations like these.
Not directly related to surf but still coastal....Sorrento foreshore has a draft masterplan currently open for public comment.
It is a further development of the coastal management plan from 2018, I like it but either way it would be good for a wider range of people to make a comment than just the usual conservative suspects, https://www.mornpen.vic.gov.au/About-Us/Have-your-say/Have-Your-Say-Draf...
It’ll go real well with the absolutely necessary Ferry Terminal upgrade. There is no fucking point in having a say. Council doesn’t listen. Sorrento is a fucking joke these days..
Yep Sorrento has been a hollow shell of a town for a long time, it's an expensive retirement village of sorts now. The ferry terminal upgrade will change the area forever last time I looked it was a three storey building out on the pier, no going back from that one... will council listen to your comments on the landscape plan... who knows? roll the dice Bone... live a little
Morning pastels in Lorne.
The Lorne and TQ cams get the best colours on dawn.
Where else in Oz regularly gets really good sunrises/sunsets on your cams Ben?
Are you allowed to surf on the MP if you live within 5km of the beach?
Nope
Unless the advice has changed, the Mornington Peninsula Shire website states:
"Can I go to the beach? Yes, beaches are open for exercise but you must stay within 5km of your home.Remember two people maximum in a group and keep your distance to people you do not live with."
https://www.mornpen.vic.gov.au/Community-Services/Health-Wellbeing/Community-Health-Wellbeing/Coronavirus/Frequently-asked-questions
The Victoria Deptartment for Human and Health Services have summarised Stage 4 'exercise' restrictions as:
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/stage-4-restrictions-summary-covid-19
And here's a few maps showing 5km radius for four surfing regions. So, anyone living within these circles is allowed to 'exercise' at these beaches.
However, if you live outside of these circles, then all MP/WP beaches are essentially out of reach.
I was told by DHHS that surfing is a recreational exercise and not allowed, is it being enforced if you can prove your a local to the area? probably not.
No surf beaches on the peninsula are actually managed by the MPS council...which is probably for the best
DHHS have a website: "Sport and exercise: Regional Victoria stage 3" (though, the URL is generic and suggests it could also apply for stage 4).
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sport-and-exercise-regional-victoria-covid-19
Can I leave the house to exercise outdoors?
Yes. You can leave your home to exercise outdoors in a public space, either alone, with members of your household or with one other person outside your household.
You should use the parks and public spaces which are closest to your home. This includes walking, hiking, bike riding, surfing, kayaking or yoga in the park.
Ah here we go, a stage 4 webpage for sporting restrictions.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sport-and-exercise-metropolitan-melbourne-covid-19
There is a section entitled "What activities are restricted?". Surfing is not mentioned. Additionally, there is another section entitled "Can I go to the beach?", to which the answer is "Yes, if there is a beach within 5km from your home. You can go to the beach for exercise only."
So, surfing is allowed, if you live within one of the circles above and can surf at that beach (i.e. if you live at Rye, you can't travel to Point Leo etc).
It was listed as not allowed on the initial summary document under outdoor recreation.
I can't see it (there's a lotta text on those posts) - can you point me in the right direction?
As I posted above, DHHS website has a section "What activities are restricted?" on Stage 4 restrictions.
Surfing is not mentioned, nor implied.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sport-and-exercise-metropolitan-melbourne-covid-19#what-activities-are-restricted
The same website also has a section: "Can I undertake recreational activities like fishing?"
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sport-and-exercise-metropolitan-melbourne-covid-19#can-i-undertake-recreational-activities-like-fishing
The answer is:
"No. Outdoor recreational activities like fishing are not a permitted reason to leave home."
But.. surfing ain't like fishing.
It also says:
"Outdoor recreation - including, golf, fishing, hunting, recreational driving, recreational flying, recreational boating and personal watercraft use – are no longer a permitted reason to leave home."
Surfing is NOT mentioned.
Interestingly, "personal watercraft" is mentioned as being a form of recreational activity that is not allowed.
However, Maritime Safety Victoria's definition of a "Personal watercraft" - or a PWC - is:
"A PWC includes jet skis, wave runners and similar vessels that have an engine used for propulsion, fully enclosed hull, don’t retain water and are operated by standing, kneeling or sitting astride."
https://transportsafety.vic.gov.au/maritime-safety/recreational-vessel-operators/personal-watercraft-pwcs
So, again - surfing is NOT mentioned.
What a bloody pain in the arse all of this is to figure out.
Must admit, the only document I have seen that specifically calls out surfing is not allowed in Stage 4 was a document attached to a single tweet sent by Dan Andrews. It was a summary of all restrictions and there was a section on exercise where 'fishing, golf, boating, surfing, tennis, and driving range shooting are not allowed."
https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1289795907186122752/photo/1
So it's not allowed, however the fact that unless you have this document available from his tweet it's hard to find any other info that says specifically surfing is banned on the DHHS website, so I reckon you could probably challenge the fine. It's a gamble for sure. Anyone heard of a MP surfer getting stung by a cop? We know people have been surfing looking at the cams.
If not mentioned on a Government site and buried in a tweet I'd say you'd have great cause to challenge any fine.. This is for people within 5km.
If I were pulled over, and was within the 5km limit, I'd cite an official Government Health website before a Twitter post.
Yep, no doubt.
Just searched for that exact phrase you wrote, and I can't find a single government website that specifically cites surfing (as being allowed, or banned). Only that Tweet (linked below), which was signed by "DEHHS Social Media".
https://twitter.com/vicgovdhhs/status/1290157135527993344
Although that Twitter account is blue-ticked, I don't think it'd hold up in a court of law.
Whilst they would never be able to capture all forms of recreational activity, hence why on the website they say "including" fishing, boating, golf etc without it being a definitive list, you would surely think some smart cookie goes, hang on, surfing is pretty popular, maybe if that's banned let's call that out rather than hoping it's understood as a catch all under 'recreational activities'. If they even go into detail using terms such as personal watercraft (who the fuck uses that term), then a simple addition of surfing isn't that hard.
But I guess as we've seen with the Victorian DHHS compared to other states (shit contract tracing!!), maybe it all is a bit hard for them.
Well, if they'd only spoken to Surfing Australia, they'd know that - apparently - one in every ten Australians is a surfer, and so they would have mentioned surfing as a banned activity, along with "recreational flying" (huh? how many people recreationally fly, I hear you ask?").
Surfing Vic also confirmed with local cops. You would have to get a cop on a very bad day to get fined if you’re within the 5km though I reckon. Less than 2wks left of this shit hopefully
It's an anecdotal source though. Appreciate that Surfing Vic spoke to the police, but written documentation from a government department would be more convincing.
Never mind DHHS, I believe Vic Local has the final say on what’s allowed.
'Recreational exercise' is is the magic word which puts surfing, golf, fishing in together, that said if I were within 5kms I'd definetly sneak a surf in
Thanks - everyone - still confused on whether surfing is classified as recreational or exercise? It seems I can definitely go to the beach but if the boys in blue are there, then they can make a decision either way.
If you live within one of the circles I posted above, you can surf at a corresponding beach (that's within 5km of your house).
If you don't live within one of those circles, then, no - you can't surf.
Prob more an issue of the address where you’re car is registered to more than anything,
Thanks again - both myself and the car registered in the circles.
Just don't cross the streams.
But how else do I defeat giant marshmallow men??
there's a dude surfing on the Gunna cam..
There's quite a few houses within 5km of Gunna.
Dob him in IMMEDIATELY!!!
http://www.mpnews.com.au/2020/08/31/surfing-rules-locals-only-within-lim...
Article from yesterday, it’s now allowed! Enjoy you lucky carnts, I’ll be keeping a close eye for something rideable in Port Phillip haha
I always hated the concept of authorities, or even members of the surfing community classifying surfing as only recreation, not exercise. It's clearly both. It's a highly physical activity which is also a professional sport. Painting is recreational....collecting flowers is recreational....not surfing!
I also hate the idea of overlapping Governing bodies (councils, water police, DHHS etc.) juggling rules between themselves.
Same thing happened in the city here for kitesurfing. Kiteboarding Victoria were quick to the punch with a press release back in March saying kiting is banned as it's classified as recreational boating, and Boating Victoria (water police) have disallowed it.
The excuses came in thick and fast why these sports should be banned....'don't want to clog up ICU beds unnecessarily'....'don't want to create unnecessary contact with emergency crew if you get stuck out to sea' etc. etc.
The moral is there's a large contingent of rule loving authoritarians out there....essentially trying to ruin things for everyone due to their interpretations of whatever twitter post, or website text they read.
Sanity prevails but fuck me doesn’t it just paint a picture of how fucking useless the Vic authorities are if a simple thing such as surfing being banned or not banned can be communicated as poorly as it has been. What hope do us viccos have with this piece of shit DHHS leading us through this. Very easily see how Victoria have copped the 2nd wave while every single other area of this country gets on living their lives.
I might make it through the year without getting sick if the diseased cnts stay in the city
OK
Someone moderate this flog
Thanks guys - awesome news.
A least somebody can enjoy it! See you in 1.5wks
We hope!
Hey Ben, I did save a copy of that first guidelines from the tweet that had surfing as banned in Stage 4 on it, if you want a copy. Looks to be superseded for MP locals now anyway.