Better outlook for the coming days
Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th August)
Best Days: Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning
Recap
Small, though clean waves across the Surf Coast the last two days with sets to 2ft, poor to the east.
This week and weekend (Aug 27 - 30)
Upgrade!
We’ve got an upgrade to Friday’s swell with a strengthening frontal system that’s due to move in from the west now looking quite significant. The models were divergent on the strength of this storm hence I was a little cautious on Monday but now the system is looking really nice.
The front is currently south-southwest of WA and will push east fairly rapidly today while deepening. A fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds will be projected through our south-western swell window with core winds possibly reaching storm-force. The speed isn't ideal but the fetch strength overcomes this somewhat.
The front will push through tomorrow evening, with tomorrow morning seeing a continuation of small 2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 2-3ft to the east with strengthening N/NW tending W/NW winds.
Come Friday, the long-period and moderate to large SW groundswell will fill in, peaking through the afternoon with the Surf Coast due to reach 4-6ft with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. The morning looks to be around 4ft or so on the Surf Coast. Winds should be favourable all day for protected spots as well with a W/NW tending variable breeze.
The swell is due to ease rapidly into Saturday as the new long-range W/SW groundswell moves in, halting the easing trend. There’s no change to this swell with inconsistent 3ft+ sets due into the afternoon on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east, but the morning should be bigger and to 4ft and 6ft+ respectively.
Winds look favourable for most locations as well Saturday with local fresh offshore winds out of the north (N/NW Surf Coast and N to the east).
Now, moving into Sunday the models diverge regarding a possible strong low moving in quickly from the west. GFS has it stronger and generating some new swell for Sunday while EC has it further north resulting in stronger N’ly tending NW winds and the easing W/SW groundswell.
We’ll have to look at this closer on Friday but it looks to go the way of EC. Longer term any swell on Sunday will ease into next week and we’ll see a couple of mid-latitude lows forming and moving in from the west later next week. More on this Friday.
Comments
Kinda knew i still loved ya Craig.
“ Winds look favourable for most locations as well Saturday with local fresh offshore winds out of the north (N/NW Surf Coast and N to the east).”
Ok, we got this classic. My question is - If you draw those lines on a map, which winds would override the other. I’ve asked before in a context (why we get a weird bumpy Northerly sometimes and sometimes we don’t). It’s as if West Coast winds overpower ours?
^ a bit all over the shop but hopefully there’s a sensical question in there :)
The winds look mostly N-N/NW so coming from a little more out of the west I'd expect a bit more ridging and saw-toothing compared to say if winds were more N-N/NE and being steered N/NW on the Surf Coast.
I would think it has to do with the general west to east pattern spinning round this Southern Hemisphere.
Small sand runners during the covid crisis, mind surf these little lines crew.
Nice pic. Our very own Superbank. Minus the crowds. Heaven if you're 3ft tall and 30 kilos.
Back in '11 or so (or was it '09? - the last big La Nina) did the road trip with my eldest surfing grom sized points all the way up to Noosa. Crowds etc taken into account, we came all the way back home to find the best little pointbreak.
Craig pls delete photo
lol
Thanks walk around, I always drive past but should stop there next time I’m around looks like fun for the kiddies
Looks good, but not much fun on anything less than a 10ft SUP.
Yeh, totally but what a beautiful coastline, no? I'm not trying too imply pumping waves, just providing some scenic beauty to help you get through your day. I wasn't in the water either, working like a dog in construction but I did enjoy lunch overlooking that beautiful bay.
Yes, we are lucky to live down this way, there is no doubt about it.
Some fun to be had this morning for sure. Once again a pleasure to have a surf where you know nearly everyone that passes through.
if you don't know anyone you can just ignore them, may the best surfer win. was a bit slow but good quality when they came, fking crowded
Imagine the crowds when the shackles are released and everyone's allowed back in the water
I will have racked up a ton of waves by then so probably won't give a shit. Might even have a couple of weeks off.......
Good to hear, maybe the locals can sit out a few sessions and let the Melbourne crew get their fill
I’m tipping all systems go Oct 5th
Hah! Good one DX3.
More chance of some local hero putting up another 'F@#$k OFF Melbourne Covid dogs' sign than that happening!
NthWestSth, that's a shite attitude and one of the reasons it turns into a dogs breakfast so easily. Maybe you can let everyone in the water know that if they're better than you it's OK to snake or burn you. You might get a few less waves than you think, hotshot, so I'm looking forward to seeing you put up with it. Oh, by the way, hope you don't travel.
Haha been dealing with it for 15 years I mostly love it now. Especially when a good surfer comes out and does manage to burn me it's always nice to watch a good surfer. Mostly kooks around here, don't stand a chance. Considering I surf with 0-6 ppl when I usually score out of town, I doubt you're the kind of guy I'd come across when I travel. Oh ya that sounds like the attitude of a typical Torquay surfer, I learnt that attitude 10 years ago
Finally the tap is on - fine form once again craigos
Saturday should be exciting 20C pumping waves if the rozzers have any brains they will block the highway and collect enough fines for the worlds biggest Christmas party
Where have you been, highways been blocked for months
No sign of any ground swell yet, such a cold windy afterworky....brrrrrr (icicle emoji)
I reckon this upcoming swell is going to fly under the radar and most of the crew in town are going to miss it. Nobody is talking about it at all.***
***sarc warning.
Meh.........who cares VL, let's just all try our best too actually enjoy our first decent swell in.....well ages. Everyone chill-out, catch a few, share a few, hoot a few, smile and have a good time.
Yes, of course we'll all still need too maintain social distancing, wear masks, yardy yarda but everyone within the near vicinity deserves a defrag session at some point over the next few days.
The vibe in the water has been really good despite the shit surf. Lots of older guys who have surfed with each other for decades sharing the limited waves. Hopefully that continues and we get some consistency over the next few days. Hope you get a few Walk around G.
Another great fun morning of waves with very manageable numbers.
but almost blown flat when I had a look from the rock about 5pm
Save your petty money and stay at home everyone
That front had a bit of juice
Fucken oath!
Trees down here and even had rain come under the front door despite weather strip and alcove.
Sure did Bone
Me and twins were wearing it front on, we were heading back from my pantry when it hit,
First time in 6 weeks that I thought it would be nice to be rumbling along in the comfort of the troop machine rather than the Finnbob powered train. Then I looked back at the little blokes faces, they were wet, wind blown, freezing and loving every second of it.
Makes you you realise that the easiest option is not always the best.
Yeah that was full on for a bit. Got dark so quick after work. Tanks are full again
Impressive wind gusts with the frontal passage.
84kts (156km/hr) at Hogan Island (!)
78kts at Wilsons Promontory
67kts at Mount Gellibrand (near Colac)
62kts at Fawkner Beacon
60kts at St Kilda Harbour RMYS
56kts at Avalon
55kts at Cape Otway
54kts at South Channel Island
54kts at Port Fairy
50kts at Aireys Inlet
Can confirm reports of chooks being blown sideways at passage of the front.
It was full on.
Wow
SURF COAST COMMUNITY SAFETY PATROLS : COVID UPDATE
Surf Coast Police will partner with the Australian Defence Force this weekend - in response to favourable weather conditions.
Surf Coast Local Area Commander Inspector Monique LEFFANUE said, "With favourable weather over the new few days - we anticipate people will want to attend the Surf Coast, particularly the coastal precincts."
"Our Community Safety patrols will include all beach areas and car parks, in the company of ADF personnel - these patrols will be highly visible and tasked to ensure strict COVID compliance."
Inspector LEFFANUE said, "This tasking compliments a number of initiatives with Surf Coast Shire - all aimed at ensuring our Community is as safe as possible during stage 3 restrictions."
Perceived breaches of stage 3 restrictions can be reported via the Police Assistance Line on 131 444.
This state is a fucking joke
No goofyfoot, It's the people who want to take a trip to the beach during a pandemic that are a fucking joke. Surfcoast has only had a handful of active cases during this second wave so you can understand why they don't want Melbourne crew coming down. Now is not the time for trips to the regions.
Sorry Vic, should of said the people running this state are a fucking joke.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12564676
We would of been back to living like the rest of the country if that brain dead fuckwit wasn’t in charge
By your logic Melbourne only has a handful of active cases - 3000 odd active in a city of 5M+. Melbourne's also properly locked down (not that cakewalk stage 3).
Don't jump straight to the conclusions that
a) Melbourne crew are still sneaking down for surfs
b) Surfing, or any activity related to it is a reasonable risk of spread (everyone's in masks everywhere now)
c) Melbourne crew are any more 'dangerous' than Geelong crew, Colac crew, Ocean Grove crew, torquay crew etc. etc.
Hey VL.... I reckon that notice that's gone up about local coppers and the ADF patrolling your town is actually targeted at you surf coast locals. They'll be roaming the streets making sure the locals are adhering to the rules and ensuring you are wearing your masks, not sitting on the beach, hanging out in groups/doing whatever is not allowed during stage 3 - which you guys are in. So that means, if you aint exercising, shopping for essentials, getting medical attention etc you shouldn't be out and about.
Spare us the fucking 'Melb crew are all so bad, local crew do everything by the book' act you keep going with.
Tbh there was heaps of crew in town, walking/running/cycling/with kids/going for a surf. Sunny weather. Agree cops/ADF will be enforcing for local people & I suppose Geelong & regional who go to the beach. Saw checkpoint today, strange days. Strange year.
I have a copy of the Stage 3 restrictions, salient points for a very busy foreshore:
Stay at Home, except for exercise
Gatherings of people: public: up to 2 people or household members only
Sporting Activities: outdoor sport: only allowed to exercise, or activities such as fishing, golf, boating, tennis, surfing, with one other person or household members, provided 1.5 metre distance can be maintained
Surfing, for eg in the surf carpark, I'm suiting at home and getting board out of car as quickly as I can and getting out there, drive home in wettie and don't hang around changing, don't chat - which feels really weird. Haven't seen anyone in a mask trying to suit up. Also trying to surf alone or with one other household member, like NorthWestSouth is saying in this thread. 20 to 25 on a peak - well, you gotta be on the peak to get the takeoff, but yeah
It's going to be absolute total madness down here once stage 4 ends for Melbourne (who can blame them either) - I really hope the contact tracers are on top of community transmission and numbers are really low by that stage.
Wtf do you expect when you continue to surf in groups
Who are you talking to?
Everyone who keeps going to the popular Beach's in Torquay. 20 people out at bird Rock is asking for trouble and all the people walking on the beach
This morn was beaut despite the drop in swell, the secret spot* next to bird rock was pumping for 2 hours on the low with minimal crew - great place we live in, bring on the weekend swell and warm weather yew
Yeah man I love Jan Juc
I was about to give up on surfing in Victoria....will be glad to actually see (via webcam) some good waves again.
Glad I got my fill today. Gunna be MENTAL crowds tomorrow.
So you don't call 75+ at Winki, 50+ at Bells and a Cup Day crowd at Posso mental? Everywhere was packed to the rafters and it was wonky all day....need something Spinal Tap to describe tomorrow.
I stopped surfing Winki/Bells a while ago and haven't surfed Possos this century.
There were a few other spots with good waves from late morning.
75+ at Winki and 50+ at Bells....during a pandemic.....good work local crew, good work.
Yep can’t blame that one on city surfers VL, maybe the ADF are for you guys after all.
I’m sure he’ll find a way to blame it on the Melbourne infected Covid dogs like he always does.
Got a feeling VicLocal is gunna go DEFCON 1 when he gets on here to give his Saturday surf report.
People evvvverywhere.
People exercising everywhere.
numbers in the water were reasonable I thought..
Glad I kept my powder dry till about 1pm. Had a ripper surf with a lot less crew out than the morning.
Properly pumping
Nice one. Were you on surf coast or further down the road?
Pretty close to home on the Surfcoast mate.
Beer tasting pretty good right now!
I bet
Beautiful clean straight swell today.
There were some good poundings getting dished out.
Some 8 footers with plenty of water in them.
Great day to get back in the water after not surfing since stage 4 began
Yes, had a great surf down the ocean road a bit today and not too crowded. Expected it to be packed today with these conditions considering how many people were around yesterday surfing pretty average waves.
Looked incredibly fun.
Was a proper spring feel in the air today...shorts and t shirts were the go - gotta love that about the cooler states in Aus....the apparent temp barely got above 13 and people were stripped down all about town...soaking up the sun. Could imagine QLDers grabbing dusting off beanies and coats in similar weather.
Could also imagine the water being as cold as it gets...and the arms/core being a little weaker than usual, making the paddle outs that bit harder....and getting over the lip on some of those bigger ones just a bit too hard.
Oh and let us remember this day - the day when finally we can safely once and for all say that Melbourne surfers make sweet fark all of a difference when it comes to crowds.
My garden is looking 6ft and offshore after the last 4 weeks now, farkin sick as!
Great to hear guys!