Increasing wind for the weekend but with a new swell
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th July)
Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning for the keen in protected spots, Tuesday morning protected spots
Recap
Cleaner conditions across all locations yesterday but small, slow and peaky on the Surf Coast to 1-2ft, better to the east and to 3ft on the sets.
Into the late afternoon a new pulse of inconsistent W/SW groundswell showed but this has peaked this morning with inconsistent 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 4ft to occasionally 5ft to the east. Conditions were calm, cold and clean with a variable north wind. We should see winds hold out of the N/NE all day as the swell eases.
This weekend and next week (Jul 18 - 24)
This morning’s peak in inconsistent W/SW groundswell was the first of two, with the second due to build through tomorrow and offer the most size later in the day and early Sunday.
The secondary pulse is the better of the two, generated by a stronger polar storm firing up from the west of the Heard Island region, in our far far swell window, but on top the active sea state generated by the storm linked to today’s swell.
The low broadened while weakening and projecting towards WA, then breaking down in our medium-long range swell window. This is the cause of the inconsistency with a long wait for the biggest and best sets.
Looking at the timing and tomorrow morning we’ll likely fall between swells with small, inconsistent 2ft waves on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east, with the new groundswell building to 3ft late in the day across most breaks on the Surf Coast, up to 4ft on the biggest sets on the swell magnets. The Mornington Peninsula should build to 5-6ft later.
Winds are a bit of an issue though, strengthening from the N/NE-N from morning, so put in that extra paddle.
The swell is due to ease from a similar size across both coasts early Sunday and a dawn and strong N’ly will shift NW around midday/early afternoon.
We then look at the incoming mid-latitude front come low, bringing the change in winds Sunday. The models have converged on where and how this system will evolve and it looks to be a mix of what EC and GFS had on Wednesday. The storm is currently a polar front south-west of WA and will project a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window today before projecting up towards the Bight and weakening.
This will produce an inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Tuesday, but the front will move in across us Sunday evening, with a trailing fetch of strong W/SW winds through Monday. This will kick up a building mid-period SW swell for Monday, though peaking Tuesday with the W/SW groundswell.
Size wise the Surf Coast should build from 2-3ft or so early Monday to 3-4ft through the day with building surf to a stormy 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from a similar size Tuesday across both coasts.
Winds will be OK for the Surf Coast and moderate to fresh from the W/NW, tending SW early afternoon and then similar but with less strength Tuesday, favouring protected spots.
Following this the surf will continue to ease into Wednesday with a morning W/NW breeze, offshore from the NW Thursday but with no decent new swell. Instead we’ll be relying on inconsistent, long-range W/SW groundswell from the Indian Ocean with this trend continuing into the weekend.
More on this Monday, have a great weekend!
Comments
In light of the recent talk about Melbourne surfers hitting MP beaches because it's in the metro area, here's some advice from the government today to clarify (from The Age blog this morning):
"People could be fined $1652 for exercising in a location outside of their local area under Victoria’s COVID-19 lockdown rules.
In a clarification of its advice on travel restrictions, the state government has prohibited travelling to an area far away from home for exercise."
Pretty simple.
Good news for Victoria’s nursing home
Tago, guessing you live down on MP?
The DHHS advice (not the Age's interpretation) states: "[h]owever, you cannot drive a long way from your home to do these activities [surfing], if they can be done closer to home."
Not really that simple, given Gunna is probably the closest for most metro surfers.
In any event, I personally think that the spirit of the rules seems to suggest its not recommended for metro surfers to be travelling down MP for a surf.
On an interesting point, if you get down to Gunna and its not working (but still surfable) can you scout the coast east or west? Probably not?
Ok. Not trying to insinuate Melba people don’t come down for a surf but rather trying to understand the vague rules. I would take it that of you live even say 15-20 away that’s too far. I don’t Gunna is justifiable cause its closet. A example I’ll try and use is if the mountains were open, would I then be sweet to drive 3 hours because that’s my closet mountain?
At the end of the day, I think it’s just gonna come down to common sense which is just another grey area layer on top of another.
I would not go by a newspaper to clarify anything even if it's the age more credible than some but that's not hard.
I rang the Rona hotline to clarify. They deferd me to DHHS website. But in conversation I was told have a printed copy in your car of this below..See below . Highlight what you are doing so if any questions. And in conversation traveling for surfing is deliberately made a grey area to stop people traveling everywhere.
I have work colleagues in Geelong and Torquay they travel to Melbourne for work. If you travel to regional Vic without a regional address you get fined the 3rd time you get caught at the Lara checkpoint.
You are not going to get fined for surfing. All this is to stop mass gatherings etc.
Can I leave the house to do exercise outdoors?
Yes. In metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire you can leave your home to exercise outdoors in a public space, either alone, with members of your household or with one other person outside your household.
This includes walking, running, hiking, bike riding, surfing, kayaking and other types of exercise such as yoga in the park.
In order to help slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) across the state, you cannot leave metropolitan Melbourne or Mitchell Shire to exercise.If you live outside of metropolitan Melbourne or Mitchell Shire you cannot enter these areas for the purpose of exercise or recreation.
While exercising with people outside your household, you should keep at least 1.5 metres between yourself and others.
You should also stay close to home and use common sense and consideration when it comes to these activities.
I drove from Torquay to 13th today. felt like a foreigner but surfed liked I was KS so the local constabulary let me go without a warning
Wtf does ‘could be’ mean anyway. The scenarios that they paint are stupid. I like to fish 15kms away but can fish closer to home, what should I do? Fish closer to home.
Not saying I’m rushing to the ninch but seriously this is rubbish guidance and would be so easy to argue my nearest beach is gunna and surfing is my exercise
Gunna wouldn’t be the closest though, it would probably be balnarring point.
As I’ve always said it will come down to the cops interpretation/mood after you get stopped. They could argue St Kilda wind swell is surfable and since half the Frankston station is shut down due to covid they won’t be f’ing around
When's the last time you saw a cop going for a bay surf?
My point is if they want to fine you they will. Dandrews just said a couple fined driving from coburg to rye for exercise. “A 200km round trip is a day trip, day trips are not on”.
I had a bay surf last lockdown and I noticed cops spent a while in the car park. Not sure if they were questioning people...
Craig the east coast (Melbourne) has had an awesome run of weather and swell for winter. Light offshores, sunshine, low rainfall and friendly size, for the beachies. It was a rubbish autumn and the wettest on record or close to, but sensational winter. Is there a particular weather anomaly which explains this excellent situation.
Yeah I've noticed and it's been an epic winter across NSW as well, all tied in. Will dig deeper next week to the cause.
I don't know of anyone who has been fined going for a surf yet. The closest beach to Melbourne is definitely not Gunnamatta, as someone else said it will be Balnarring Point, but you need a 50 year storm to get enough swell in there to ride it
My advice would be in the unlucky situation that you do get fined, but you clearly live on the east side of Melbourne, and the Mornington Peninsula is the closest beach to you, just appeal the fine - it will probably be dismissed with a warning.
Surfers will not be targets for rule breaching fines, it will be the Lycra brigades cycling down from Melbourne, and other exercise groups that do not have specific weather event requirements like surfers. I have driven past plenty of police cars with a board strapped to my roof since all this madness began and never had an issue once
Gunna closer by drive time.
Noticed at least 3 vehicles with Longboards on Beaconsfield Parade today heading to West Coast. WTF? All amount me attitude. Hope they got fined!
Or were they returning home from gunna, ? Living in port Melbourne..
Two were 8.30 this morning so not them. Salty Melb local doing the right thing. Oh well. Let’s hope get wet again sooner rather than later.
13th was sublime this arvo
Cops at Dromana and McCrae freeway exits the last couple of days. Rumor has it that a car from up the line with signwriting (melb number) on it had its windscreen smashed at the local carrie this week.
Big cop set up this morning on the Peninsula Link heading down to the coast.
It's not how far anyone drives to surf that counts, is how you behave outside the car. Keep your distance and don't be a dick, local or not
It is how far you drive, thats the point. Stay, surf, ride, walk in your postcode.
The responsible thing would be to stay in your postcode. If you can’t surf in your postcode, don’t go for a surf.
This is not a drill. Debating whether or not you’ll get a fine is 100% missing the point.
As much as I know you can't have different rules for every Sport, surfing is basically zero risk if you buy petrol in your suburb drive there, surf,and drive home. Spend all week working on building sites in different suburbs but your not allowed to sit in the ocean where no one's l close to you.fuck off
AMEN. Pete7.
I can go 'fuck off' or we can talk about this like grow ups.
There has been a line drawn in the sand differentiating recreation and employment. We can debate the merits of that if you want. Yet it won't change the fact that you shouldn't be leaving your postcode to go for a surf.
You can justify to yourself why and how you break the rules, yet you are only doing it from your own selfish perspective. The local petrol station may be a great place to get infected. Every person infected puts more people at risk. So stay at home. Or do what you want. But if you do what you want, accept that you are (probably) putting other people at risk because you're not an epidemiologist (I recon).
Wasn't telling you to f off.and I understand people don't want it spreading to regional areas.. point is your allowed to travel to these areas for work and are in close contact with heaps of people touching things but then your not meant to do something
with next to no chance of transferring virus. Probably should make petrol pumps mandatory hand sanitizer area too. Just wonder where it ends, apparently over 1000 people have topped themselves since this started
and just over 100 from the virus.
Sure you'll save a lot of elderly but how many others lives are red in
I recon you are right there mate - it does seem illogical where some of the lines have been drawn. And hand sanitizer at a petrol pump seems like a great idea to me.
The mental health toll from this thing is grotesque. 100%.
I think there's enough evidence out there NOW to say that COVID 19 transmission around Beaches and amongst Surfers is negligible to this point in time. Move On. Go Surfing as most Surfers have been.
Where is this evidence you speak of?
And even if surfing is a low risk activity, is travelling to and from the surf also low risk? And what about if plans go awry and one stays longer in an area or just really needs that coffee?
Considered the large amount of community transmission occurring in Melbourne and the suggestion that transmission is from airborne routes, surely travelling to surf is both against public health guidelines and somewhat selfish.
I am open to hearing otherwise and being convinced I am wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong.
You’re not wrong at all. To anybody that thinks it’s ok doing a 2+ hr round trip from Melbourne where there are literally 1000s of active cases to an area with only 7 cases (and huge numbers of elderly) you’re a complete and utter selfish fuckwit.
Agreed. 6 weeks is a drop in the ocean. Stay home means stay home so looking for loopholes is self-centered fuckwittery
Geek live in South Melbourne. In work for a Geelong based company with 90% of our work in metropolitan Melbourne. People at my smoko table live in Geelong Torquay ect not to mention many other suburbs in Melbourne.
I don't consider them selfish fwits for comming to work. It has to be both ways. Or nothing at all. Essential or not.
Sorry I wasn’t clear, I have no problem people commuting to work, that’s 100% essential to keep food on their table. 200km round trip to surf isn’t essential in any shape or form
Essential has become one of the strangest words of late.
Haircuts are essential. Bottleshops are essential. Golf courses are essential. Ikea is essential. The list goes on.
If you start defining the distance of travel as the essential factor, then who draws that line? F@$K me it gets grayer then...Is 20km essential? What about 120km? Walking distance only?
Why should person X continue to work in Melbs...from Geelong? Shouldn't they not take an unecessary risk and get a local job, or go on Job Seeker? What if they're the super spreader which brings it down the coast?
Far out...I hate what this is doing to Australia.
Paging Dr. Dickhead!
Fucken oath
Don't come here and put others at risk just because of your selfish 'justifications'.
They probably should re-open the tub. Removes the risk of surfers travelling. Would be a great public health initiative.
That would be sick If It opened but it won't. Ps DHHS has stated family transmission is under control. And spread is comming from work places. So a testing blitz will be done to pinpoint these areas.
Just for the record surfers are not transmitting regardless of postcode or how far they traveled.
Haven't seen this info pigdog. Where did you see that?
My understanding was that 'community transmission' means transmission from an unknown sources and there are still reports of large amounts of community transmission going about.
Dhhs is governing body on virus status updates and rules.
For example they may say stage 4 rules later this week... which may mean... no leaving postcode for exercise shopping ECT.
I know what The DHHS is.
That wasn’t my question.
Hey Craig any change to tomorrow mornings forecast swell wise?