Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th June)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday, later Saturday, Sunday

Recap

Monday afternoon's large pulse and kick in new W/SW groundswell eased back a touch into yesterday in size and consistency as winds remained favourable for the Surf Coast and other protected breaks all day.

Today our new pulse of large SW groundswell has filled in providing 6ft waves across the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east and variable winds are offering slightly lumpy conditions with the lack of offshore breeze to iron out the new swell. We should see the surf remaining decent most of the day as winds remain variable, tending more E'ly across the Surf Coast later afternoon.

This week and weekend (Jun 18 - 21)

We're currently seeing the peak in SW groundswell across the state and from here into the end of the week the size will gradually ease. Only a slight dip is due this afternoon but come tomorrow we should see the swell easing back from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday will be smaller and dropping back from 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east.

Today's variable winds are thanks to a high moving in behind the frontal activity linked to the large run of surf and we'll see a strong mid-latitude low off the Western Australian coast squeezing the western flank of the high through the end of the week.

This will bring persistent N'ly winds, moderate to fresh tomorrow and then stronger on Friday. We'll likely see winds tend N/NE at times east of Melbourne tomorrow and also Friday but expect mostly a straighter northerly flow.

Our new mix of W/SW and S/SW groundswells for the weekend are on track, with a slight upgrade in the S/SW energy from the polar fetch. As mentioned in Monday's notes, the mid-latitude low encroaching on the Western Australia coast has produced an acute W/SW groundswell that'll be very inconsistent and hard to discern under the better S/SW groundswell.

This S/SW groundswell will be generated tomorrow and early Friday by a great polar fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds (stronger and longer lived than forecast on Monday).

The swell should arrive later Saturday afternoon but likely peak Sunday morning. So with this most of Saturday is likely to be small to tiny and slow ahead of a late kick on the Surf Coast to 2-3ft and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Sunday should see better waves more to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

Winds will abate from Friday through the weekend as the mid-latitude low weakens on approach from the west, bringing moderate to fresh and early N tending N/NW-NW winds Saturday and then N/NW tending variable breezes on Sunday.

Come Monday the remnants of the low are expected to finally move east bringing freshening onshore winds along with small amounts of leftover swell.

Longer term, we've got plenty of W/SW groundswell on the way from later next week and into the weekend as a broad, strong and stalling frontal progression develops under the country through next week. More on this Friday though.