Cold, large and windy weekend
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st May)
Best Days: Experienced surfers protected spots tomorrow and Saturday morning, possibly Surf Coast early Monday, Tuesday on the beaches
Recap
Yesterday was best on the Surf Coast with Wednesday afternoon's pulse of W/SW groundswell easing back to the 3ft range, bumpy and poor to the east. Later in the day some new swell started to show, spreading out from the deepening and stalling low to our south-west and this morning we've seen more size again with freezing temperatures, high snow falls and OK waves in protected spots.
We should see more size develop through the afternoon (discussed below) but tomorrow now looks to offer the most size across the state.
Serious snowfall overnight at Mt Hotham
This weekend and next week (May 2 - 8)
If you've been following the comments in Wednesday's Forecaster Notes as well as the notes in general you'll have seen how tricky and dynamic the current setup is.
What we've got is a cold, and intense stalling low to our south-west, with a fetch of SW-S/SW gales generated just within Bass Strait's swell window during yesterday. The swell from this fetch is spreading into us this morning, while a slight shift of the low to the east today will see gales projected up through Bass Strait this afternoon.
This should kick the swell further in size this afternoon with the Surf Coast likely to reach 5-6ft+ on the swell magnets, a stormy 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds shift more W-W/SW and remain strong to gale-force in strength.
Into this evening and tomorrow morning though we'll see the strongest of the fetches sling shot up and through our southern swell window, directly off the Tasmanian West Coast.
Both ECMWF and GFS have core wind speeds reaching around storm-force, though mostly severe-gale, with the fetch projecting up and into us, on top an an active sea state from this afternoon.
This will produce a large, powerful and dangerous S/SW swell event for tomorrow, building to a raw 8-10ft, if not for the odd rare bigger lump on the Surf Coast magnets, 10ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. The peak in swell is likely through the middle of the day/early afternoon, a touch smaller early.
Surfing conditions will be limited and only for the very experienced with strong W/SW tending SW winds.
As the low moves off through Saturday afternoon and evening, we'll see the swell generating fetch contract and weaken, with the swell due to ease steadily from Sunday. Dropping from 5-6ft waves are due on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east but with average and fresh to strong but slowly abating SW winds.
Moving into next week we'll see the swell continue to fade in size and power, with a chance for an early W/NW breeze on the Surf Coast but mostly SW tending S/SW.
Easing surf from 3ft or so is expected on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east.
Tuesday is still looking clean on the beaches, but size wise, we'll be looking at small fading S/SW energy and a distant W/SW groundswell. The distant energy was generated north of the Heard Island so expect no real size and extremely long waits for 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under a N/NE breeze.
Longer term, as touched on in Wednesday's notes there's nothing major on the cards until next weekend, and the models diverge on the possibilities at this early stage. Check back here for more detail on Monday. Stay warm and dry and have a good weekend!
Comments
Sounds like it'll be the biggest day we've had since Bells comp last year.
Yep.
I'm excited too crew but last year's swell was different. Last year, a very large and longer (16-17 second) period swell, which has HEAPS! (technical term there!) more energy and dare I say it (Gary G) far more penetration as a result upon the coast!
Tomorrow's going to be a 'victory at sea' type weather event, rather than a long lined up powerful, surfable swell.
Still, I'm excited too witness it and get a grovel somewhere protected from the Southern Ocean madness :)
Enjoy all, YEW!
I'm gonna call both Sig and Max wave heights pushing just above that tomorrow, but without the period..
Looks like it's going to fall just shy... solid but!
Wonder if all the townies holed up here surfing go chasing waves elsewhere.
Yeah reckon I’ll do the responsible thing and not travel to surf 10ft death traps this weekend. Purely out of respect for the local community of course.
Many fines dished out today. It was glorious.
where-was
how busy did it get this morning?
Most crowded I've seen it in non COVID times is about 60+ & I still remember surfing it 3-4' with only 3 out.
I'm watching Lorne point now on the cams and hoping it wasn't that busy down your way?
Is the border closed from the west?
And most important, did u get a few?
It’s a shame these swells are always blown out here. Be good too see these with a gentle NE. Not impossible but chances are slimmer than slim?
I'd say near impossible for a swell this close and large from this angle with NE winds ha.
Can i meet you at gentle North?
Just had a look at Winki/Bells. 7 blokes out at Bells catching the odd fat (but clean) burger in the bowl on what look to be 7' plus boards.
Winkipop car park is totally full with only a few spots left at the very back. Packed line up with more suiting up and plenty of crew hanging around. Waves about 4 -6ft No doubt the best waves around here right now but, fuck me, just not worth it these days.
Not worth going out to Bells?
7 guys is nothing
7 out at Bells is fine but the reason there was only 7 out was wave quality. Just rolling burgers that couldn't be caught deep cause the swell is pretty lumpy and sectioning all over the place. I've had enough of those kinds of surfs over a lot of years to the point that the only satisfaction is a bit of exercise.
Fairy nuff
Far out a lot of whining on this forum from a bunch as has beens by the sound of it. We have swell, let’s bloody enjoy it! Thanks craigos for the tasty foreskin notes ya legend!
Oh I’m a has been alright. Has been in yo mama tubba.
Just joking mate. Ill delete. Couldn’t help myself
Hahaha don’t worry about deleting it mate.
I’ve put my nick bone in your mum a few too many times to count!
He’s not Da Bone for nothing
Thank tha lord we can have a laugh <3
Amen
forey usually means something else.
We're a bit different down here ginger. We're always hanging out to see Craig's forey.
I wonder how bad the foreshore erosion around Kilkunda/Inverloch will be this arvo and tomorrow arvo? Big high tide and massive swell combo not gonna be good
Add in low atmospheric pressure (1hPa drop in pressure is roughly a 1mm increase in sea level) and gale force onshore winds. The erosion is likely to get ugly down that way.
Ok, doesn’t sound great.
Already extensive damage to cape Patterson SLSC, second carpark stairs at kilkunda washed away and obviously inverloch is barely recognisable these days.
Wonder if it’s affecting the banks and quality of surf at killy. According to locals they were wayyy better 25 years ago
Said everyone, everywhere.
Don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone say the banks are way better now compared to back in my day
With a bit of luck the pronounced southerly direction and short period might let you off the hook a little bit. More west and long period in it and that erosion would likely be horrendous. Good luck.
The southerly direction is the key to quite a few spots. Angle of the dangle makes in more consistent and bigger. Looks bit a washy out their ladies and gents.
Had a quick check today and it looked decided "meh".
One guy out at Winki, big sweep, 6ft with the occasional bigger wide mushburger. Bells looked much worse with the howling westerly getting into it.
We will see what tomorrow brings, but if it's anything like today, chores are going to get done around the house.
If you looked at it this arvo the only reason there was just one out was because the whole town was out at Fishos.
Pulled in for a look this arvo and it was as busy as Id ever seen it. Little kids, old crew, girls, you name it and people on the whole range of surf toys.
6ft Winki with a raging sweep sounds MUCH more enjoyable
Entire carpark full, lineup extending out into the bay.
Two mates of mine surfed bells today VL, who live on that side, and said the wind wasn’t an issue but the sets were slow. Think they surfed from about 8:00 am through the tide change.
They said Winki was very busy
swell didn't have much push, was closely lined up, and felt like a wind swell to be honest. lots of nothin in between sets.
Hopefully your last name isn’t Brown. How you put your name to that shit.
I did the after school check and high tide wasn't helping. Looked pretty average.
Oh yeah surfing cold and crowded fishos sounds like a great idea tomorrow. shame the community can't police this
https://www.willyweather.com.au/news/12597/wild+weather+lashes+victoria%...
"Melbourne has narrowly missed recording its coldest first day of May on record.
The temperature reached 13 degrees Celsius at 2:43pm on Friday, but needed to stay under 12.2 degrees to beat the record set 58 years ago on May 1 in 1962."
""Victoria, it was the wettest April since 1974, statewide, and in the last couple of days we've seen a very significant cold outbreak for this early in Autumn," Dr Trewin said."
Wonder if that means NSW will get a mega swell like 1974 (May?) - the one with the Peter Crawford pic of DY with the surf falling from the sky...
Boys in blue dished out plenty of fines today. Don’t travel to surf because your local sucks. You’ll be met with animosity on a few fronts.
And don't surf you're local points with 10 other locals. These groups are going to spoil it for every solo surfer in the long run
Locals have about 2 weeks left to enjoy the waves to themselves...restrictions to be eased soon enough and it’ll be game on again for everyone.
Locals haven't been enjoying waves to themselves mate. It's been waaay busier than normal with people having all this free time for a variety of reasons (job loss/reduction the main one) and limited options on how to use it. All of a sudden everyone's a 'surfer'.
When things get back to normal a lot of this crew will actually disappear and resume their normal life which may mean surfing twice a month instead of 4 times a week. Bring it on.
Yep definitely been my experience as well. Waves are much more crowded on the MP at the moment
Yeh my comment was a little tongue in cheek about the locals... but agree a return to some level of normality and restrictions lifted should actually mean less crowds as everyone gets back to work or school etc
I call bullshit on the fines being handed out.
Yep, load of shit
Comment redacted.
You've had a laugh once, no need to continue.
-Editor
CS buoy is standing to attention this morning
What a jump after about 11pm last night! Given travel time...
Portsea cam looks like Atlantis sinking into the sea, cam is wobbling for dramatic effect as well.
It’s windy yes, but was hoping to see some f’ed up lumps. Haven’t even seen anything stand up our back of Chevs.
WPB is a gross mess. The swell this time 2 weeks ago was much better
Wild and woolly
Looks good and chunky! Anyone else out?
With the right board that would be a blast
Two blokes when I took the shot, they did really well considering the sweep and rawness of the ocean. Probably 8 or so at the Winki river, looked like super hard work but good on them for having a dig.
Covid cauldron
Thanks WAG. That's a wide one at Winki!
Many out? Hard to put a size on it but that Bells wave must be about 8ft or a touch bigger?
Yeh, Bells was triple overhead, Winki looked slightly smaller to me but gee's the water was really flowing around the button and across the reef.
Watching the Lorne Point cam for some time now.
Was it ever a good break that has changed over time or has it always been as crap as it looks now?
Novelty wave for longboards and people not up to other waves in the area
Yep.....always been like that and very rarely bigger that 2,3 foot even on days like today. Swell goes straight past.
How nice is it to drive or walk up the point, through the trees and watch the lines roll though.
Better on the rare E swells but usually the winds are wrong when those come through.
A rare tasty looking one this morning.
Fishos carpark has spilled onto the road, nearby esplanade carparks full, nuts! Big crowd in the water.
100 + VJ?
Yeh, funny huh! I enjoyed a beer watching the fisho's chaos, every wave 3, 4, 5 drop-ins, boards being bailed dangerously, the whole shebang! One young ripper was killing it though, lite as a feather, whafting the tail out the back of knee to waist waves and even almost landed an air-reverse! Wish I could surf like that.
Yeah the young crew that rip, so good! I once did a calculation of board volume to body weight by age, thinking that the kids had a greater board volume per kg of weight, that's why they were so nimble, but nup. Average board volume and body weight increased in a linear relationship as age increased. They're just flexible, quick reflexed, and surf lots.
It was pretty mad to watch. VL I reckon it would be close - looking at a pic at home I counted 50 visible wide and on the inside, with a set wave obscuring the main lineup and everyone paddling back out to the takeoff, say an extra 20 or so?? At what point does SC shire say "OK, that's enough people in close proximity in carpark and water, sorry guys."
Lorne Point is like any other wave. When its good its good. Today was not good conditions for it, although there were a few good ones in the mix. The 50+ in the line up were there because there aren't too many options on days like this. It is generally a longboard wave, that is true, but it can be good on its day.
Weatherman. Stop spreading malicious rumours. Lorne is a dud. Not worth the long drive around the (very dangerous) Great Ocean Road. The Anglesea cop nabs anyone outside of the postcode. The locals are more vicious than Bird Rock. Any (illegal) tourists slow to a crawl to allow passengers to lean out of the window to take pictures of the scenery. Not to mention the Toorak tractors and the Lycra parade riding 4 wide. Moggs Creek bridge has traffic lights on it now. Crowd is worse than Fisho's. Forget it.
Surfed Lorne Point once in '81, felt like 6 foot or so but I was a grom. Remember scratching over these walls looking into the barrel wondering how the hell to catch one in. Wasn't until we got back to the camp site that we heard Bells having it's 20 year swell. So yeah, Lorne Point has its day.
Lol, Yep...I remember that. It must be the only time it's ever worked - 40 odd years ago. I think it was during the 50 year storm... It was when Bohdi disappeared; he washed up in Lorne and opened a cafe in the main street....It's staffed now by the Argentinian tent city out the back of the Otways.
I didnt say it happened very often.
I'm not sure which word is the best description of this swell, "over-hyped" or "craptacular"?
Why not both?
crhyptacular
Over hyped.. was never predicted to be much good I thought.
No hype at all. Large and with onshore winds??
Yep, was clearly stated in Craig's 'forey' (gee's that sounds terrible.....) BIG, raw, with shithouse winds. Truly lived up too expectations, no?
Fair point Craig. There was lots of hype around town. Not much on this site, and not from you. It was mostly cross shore ticking between WSW and WNW over the last few days. Very wonky and not that big.