Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th April)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday morning Surf Coast, keen surfers Friday, Saturday morning

Recap

Saturday started slow but clean across the state with a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell and favourable conditions across all locations. A new SW groundswell kicked into through the day offering stronger, larger and more consistent sets with favourable conditions holding through the afternoon.

This swell eased back into Sunday a touch more than expected but conditions were clean and fun on the Surf Coast through the morning ahead of an onshore change and building mix of swells through the afternoon.

A peak in size has been seen today with a mix of inconsistent W/SW groundswell and mid-period SW swell to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east. Winds should hold out of the NW all day and ease, favouring the Surf Coast and protected spots to the east.

This week and weekend (Apr 28 – May 3)

Today's mix of swells should start to ease this evening, though this trend will be slowed by mid-latitude frontal activity that's still occurring through our swell window today and tomorrow.

Size wise, a slow drop from 3-4ft is expected tomorrow on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft on the sets to the east and with great winds. Moderate to fresh local offshores are expected through the morning (N/NW Surf Coast, N Mornington Peninsula), likely tending more N'ly into the afternoon on the Surf Coast.

A new W/SW groundswell is due to fill in Wednesday and peak through the afternoon, generated by a fetch of W'ly gales under WA today. The morning is likely to be back to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east, kicking back to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the swell magnets and 5-6ft+ respectively.

Winds will be favourable though blowy and gusty out of the N/NE in the morning, shifting more N'ly later morning ahead of a early afternoon SW change, but this will be very short-lived and we may see winds shift back W/NW on the Surf Coast again later afternoon.

Thursday will see the W/SW groundswell ease with a fresh and gusty W/NW breeze, giving into a SW change as a strong mid-latitude low moves in slowly from the west.

The weather models have come into alignment regarding the movement, intensity and timing of this mid-latitude low, with it due to form off the Tassie West Coast Wednesday evening and then slowly move east, stall in our swell window while generating gale-force S/SW-SW winds kicking up a large and stormy S/SW swell.

We'll probably see an afternoon increase in swell Thursday but Friday will see all the size with stormy 4-6ft waves on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east but with strong W tending W/SW winds. While protected spots will be clean, the quality of the swell will be low.

The low is forecast to move slowly east through Friday but we'll see a secondary weaker front projecting up and into us Saturday afternoon, resulting in a mix of easing S/SW swell Saturday and weak mid-period SW swell for Sunday.

With this secondary front winds are likely to tip back to the W/NW with easing 4-5ft waves on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east on Saturday, easing Sunday from a smaller size with dawn W/NW winds, shifting SW mid-late morning.

It should be noted that there'll also be some inconsistent but good long-period energy in the mix from later Saturday through Monday but smaller than the local swell.

Into early next week it looks like we'll see the size ease as a high moves in from the east bringing S'ly winds Monday, NE Tuesday and fun on the beaches.

Check back here Wednesday and Friday though for any changes to the swell from the low and local conditions.