Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th April)

Best Days: Saturday, early Sunday Surf Coast, Monday, Tuesday, early Wednesday

Recap

Great surf yesterday with later Wednesday's pulse of new SW groundswell easing out of the S/SW yesterday from 4ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east with favourable conditions most of if not the whole day.

Today the swell is smaller and with W/NW winds, with OK waves for the keen on the Surf Coast.

This weekend and next week (Apr 25 – May 1)

Now that we've gone through a few swells, the first very west in nature (Tuesday's) followed up by much better aligned and closer-range swells, we've got another less favourable W/SW swell for tomorrow morning. On the plus side though a new better swell for Sunday has been pulled forward and to tomorrow afternoon now.

Tomorrow morning's swell was generated in our far western swell window by a strong mid-latitude frontal progression firing up west-southwest of WA and is due to provide very inconsistent 3ft sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets tomorrow morning (much smaller elsewhere) and 4-5ft+ sets to the east.

A better increase in closer-range W/SW-SW groundswell is due into the afternoon though, generated by a strengthening frontal system that developed under the country yesterday.

The front is now generating gale to near severe-gale strength W'ly winds south-west of us today.

This swell has been brought forward a little in timing, with it due to build tomorrow afternoon and reach 4ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east and with favourable conditions. N/NW winds are due tomorrow morning, likely shifting N/NE through the afternoon to the east, holding all day on the Surf Coast.

We should see this swell ease Sunday from 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively as winds shift to the W/NW early, giving into a W/SW-SW change mid-late morning.

Now, later in the day Sunday we may see hints of new inconsistent W/SW groundswell, but Monday is the best chance to see this and the smaller, and more consistent mid-period energy.

The long-range energy has been generated the past couple of days by a distant polar low and multiple fetches of severe-gale W'ly winds just east of Heard Island. This low is now weakening but a cold front spawning off it will project slowly towards us over the weekend, generating the additional and more consistent W/SW swell energy.

We should see both swells peaking Monday with surf to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft to possibly 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing Tuesday from 3-4ft and 6ft respectively.

One final pulse of reinforcing W/SW groundswell is due Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, generated by a quick burst of W'ly gales under WA early next week. Size wise we're looking at waves to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east, but we'll review this Monday.

Coming back to the local winds early next week and moderate to fresh N/NW winds are expected most of the day, possibly tending more variable N'ly later east of Melbourne and then persistent N'ly on Tuesday, N tending W Wednesday.

Now, this change on Wednesday will be linked to a dynamic and deep cold pool moving in from the west, with a low expected to form just west of us, but it's movement and intensity from here is still being resolved by the major forecasting models.

We'll likely just see onshore winds and stormy swells, but otherwise we could see a scenario if the low stays just west of us, where fun amounts of S/SW swell fill in with local light winds. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!