Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd April)

Best Days: Every day besides Friday

Recap

Yesterday's first pulse of W'ly groundswell was just that, west and slow in nature with inconsistent 3ft sets through the morning on the Surf Coast, a bit better into the afternoon with a touch more size and consistency. Phillip Island was great all day, while there was a window of clean conditions and solid waves on the Mornington Peninsula before winds shifted.

Today we've got a bit more energy across both regions with clean 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast (below), bumpy and to 5-6ft to the east.

Our stronger SW groundswell for later this afternoon is on track, with satellite observations confirming a fetch of severe-gale SW winds around a low, moving through our swell window yesterday evening and early this morning. The low is now passing under Tassie with the swell due to kick later today to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to occasionally 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with onshore winds from mid-late morning.

This week and weekend (Apr 23 – 26)

Later today's kick in new SW groundswell will be a short-lived pulse, owing to the fast eastward movement of the low that generated it through our swell window.

As a result we'll see the swell ease overnight and drop steadily tomorrow from 4ft on the sets early across the Surf Coast and 6ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions are looking good all day though with a persistent and freshening N/NW breeze on the Surf Coast, N early east of Melbourne and then shifting N/NW through the day.

Friday will be smaller and persistent W/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast. Expect slower 2ft+ waves though, bigger but bumpy to the east.

From the weekend there are various differing and tricky swells sources on the cards from persistent Southern Ocean frontal activity.

The first and least favourable inconsistent swell is due Saturday. This W/SW groundswell has been generated by a strong but distant mid-latitude frontal progression projecting a fetch of W/SW gales through our far western swell window, north-east of Heard Island. The progression is currently weakening directly south-west of WA, with it due to break down further through today.

Due to the westerly nature of the swell and distance from our coasts, this swell will be extremely inconsistent on the Surf Coast and only come in around 3ft on the swell magnets, 2ft at most other locations with infrequent 4-5ft+ sets to the east.

A similar though slightly more consistent pulse is expected on Sunday, produced by a secondary fetch of strong W-W/NW winds moving through our swell window, under the country tomorrow, strengthening south-west of us on Friday.

We should see waves to 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east, with a slightly bigger kick into the afternoon to 3-4ft and a more solid and consistent 6ft respectively.

This is then due to be followed by our inconsistent W/SW groundswell Monday, produced by various severe-gale W'ly winds through our far swell window just east of the Heard Island region over the coming days.

Weaker fronts spawning off this broad system will move in through the weekend, producing additional but smaller mid-period swell energy early next week.

The inconsistent groundswell is due to peak Monday with 3-5ft sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets, likely more consistent into the afternoon, easing slowly Tuesday from 4ft. The Mornington Peninsula looks to be 6ft mostly, with the odd 8ft cleanup at times Monday through Tuesday morning.

Coming back to the local winds and Saturday should see N/NW tending variable breezes on the Surf Coast, likely tending variable N/NE on the Mornington Peninsula, while Sunday looks to offer an early W/NW offshore ahead of a strong SW change as a trough moves through. An approaching cold front will then swing winds back quickly to the NW Monday morning, fresh though easing and tending W'ly into the afternoon.

Tuesday will hopefully see local offshore winds as the swell starts to ease, but more on this Friday.