Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd January)

Best Days: Surf Coast Friday, Saturday morning (possibly to the east as well), Sunday and Monday mornings both regions, Surf Coast early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings

Recap

Surfable but generally average waves on the coast yesterday with lighter onshore winds and a mix of easing windswell and mid-period swell from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions are nice and clean this morning across the beaches, but the swell has dropped right out, tiny and to 1ft on the Surf Coast with 2ft+ sets at dawn on the Mornington Peninsula, since dropping further.

This week and weekend (Jan 23 - 26)

There'll be nothing to surf tomorrow as a strong mid-latitude low starts moving in from the west, bringing fresh N'ly tending strong NW and then W/NW winds through the day, possibly W/SW into the evening.

There's the chance for some small and weak W'ly swell showing later afternoon and into the evening, but Friday and Saturday are much better surf days.

As touched on in the last few updates, the initial fetch generated by the low will be a little too north of our swell window to generate any major size, but a broad and elongated fetch of strong W/SW winds are currently south of WA and in the Bight.

This should produce a mid-period W/SW swell that may be seen on dark tomorrow though more likely early Friday to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

Of greater importance is the core fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds that are forecast to be projected towards us through tomorrow. This fetch will again be in our western swell window but should generate a stronger and bigger increase in W/SW swell through Friday afternoon, building to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets, an easy 6ft to the east, if not for the odd bigger cleanup.

The secondary front is looking much weaker and as a result we'll see the surf easing Saturday back from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east, smaller Sunday.

Winds are still looking great for the Surf Coast with a moderate NW breeze Friday, shifting W/NW late morning and holding until late afternoon when we may see late sea breezes. Saturday should see a morning NW breeze again, possibly N/NW early on the Mornington Peninsula, giving into S/SE sea breezes. Sunday could offer more variable breezes east of Melbourne as the swell fades, NW on the Surf Coast again ahead of sea breezes.

Next week onwards (Jan 27 onwards)

Moving into next week, our good run of SW-W/SW swell from Monday through Thursday is still on track, with a broad and stationary polar low due to generate multiple slow moving fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our south-west and then western swell windows.

Initially a small and tight polar low will generate a fetch of W/SW gales in our distant swell window, generating an inconsistent SW groundswell for later Sunday but more so Monday morning. Inconsistent 2-3ft sets are due on the Surf Coast, and 4-5ft to the east, while into the afternoon some new mid-period SW swell followed by W/SW groundswell is due on Tuesday.

This swell will be generated by a broader fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds south of WA with building surf through Tuesday to 3-4ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east into the afternoon, easing from a similar size Wednesday morning.

Looking at the local winds and we should variable breezes and clean conditions across most locations Monday morning while W/NW tending SW breezes on Tuesday will favour the Surf Coast, similar Wednesday, though more S/SW into the afternoon. Thursday looks average with S/SE breezes and easing mid-period surf.

Longer term some new W'ly swell is likely next weekend, but more on this Friday.