Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 27th December)

Best Days: Exposed beaches dawn tomorrow, Monday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings Surf Coast, Friday exposed beaches

Recap

Poor surf yesterday with tiny waves on the coast and onshore breezes, while an inconsistent new W/SW groundswell due to build through today offered a slight lift in size this morning, though only to 1-1.5ft on the Surf Coast and and a better 3ft to the east but with onshore winds.

The bulk of the W/SW groundswell has impacted Cape Sorell and we should see it building into this afternoon, reaching an inconsistent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 4-5ft to the east on the sets. Sea breezes will create bumpy conditions though.

This weekend and next week (Dec 28 – Jan 2)

This afternoon's increase in infrequent W/SW groundswell is expected to ease off slowly tomorrow, from 2ft+ on the sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-4ft to the east.

The window of clean conditions looks even smaller now for the exposed beaches, with a dawn N/NE breeze due to give into a SW change mid-late morning. Right ahead of this we may see winds tend NW. In any case go the early.

Sunday will be poor with a small to tiny leftover swell and onshore S/SE tending E/SE breeze ahead of sea breezes.

Moving into next week, and our increase in swell activity from the W/SW is still on track, with a flurry of strong mid-latitude frontal systems due to produce plenty of surf from Monday afternoon through Friday.

The first and strongest but most distant of these storms has developed west-southwest of WA, with a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds being generated in our western swell window.

This front is stronger and will push further east than the system linked to today's swell, hence generating a stronger, larger and more consistent W/SW groundswell that's expected to fill in late-morning to early afternoon and peak late in the day.

Size wise, the morning looks to only be 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to the east, kicking rapidly to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast swell magnets by mid-late afternoon, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are still looking good with a morning N/NE breeze, freshening before shifting N/NW early afternoon and then NW later ahead of an evening SW change.

The swell is expected to ease a touch temporarily into Tuesday morning, back to 3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 4-5ft to the east, while a new mid-period W/SW swell is due to build later in the day, and peak Wednesday.

This will be produced by a broader storm firing up just off the South West of WA, with a fetch of strong W/SW winds forecast to be generated through the Bight and then closer towards us into Tuesday before the storm dips east-southeast and under Tassie.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should offer fairly consistent 3-4ft waves Wednesday, 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing slowly into Thursday and back further Friday from 2-3ft and 3-5ft respectively, slowed by a weaker mid-latitude front pushing through mid-week.

Winds look more favourable than they did on Friday owing to the mid-latitude front moving through during the week, though not Tuesday, with SW tending S/SW winds expected in the wake of later Monday's change.

Wednesday should see a morning W/NW breeze, shifting S/SW later morning, W/NW again Thursday morning ahead of S'ly sea breezes.

Come Friday we'll see winds swing around to the NE, opening up the exposed beaches as the swell eases.

Longer term we've got a smaller run of surf on the cards, so make the most of the coming swells. Have a great weekend!