Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 20th December)

Best Days: Selected spots Sunday and Monday, next Saturday morning

Recap

Onshore winds and a small increase in weak swell yesterday, better today across all locations though full early with a new mid-period SW swell and 2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 3ft to occasionally 4ft to the east. The swell should strengthen a little more through the day with Cape Sorell peaking early this morning and winds are due to hold before shifting more N/NW into the evening.

This weekend and next week (Dec 21 - 27)

Tomorrow will be poor with a cool onshore change this evening bringing fresh and gusty SW tending S/SW winds to the coast tomorrow along with a small, drop in swell from today.

We then look to the large and deep low that's currently forming south-west of us today.

There's been no real change to the strength and longevity of this system, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds developing initially in our south-western swell window later this afternoon and evening, pushing slowly east and more into our southern swell window tomorrow, only weakening once passing under Tassie tomorrow evening, but continuing to direct SW gales in our southern swell window until Sunday morning.

A large, pro-longed and long-period groundswell event will impact the state from Sunday through Tuesday, with the first and largest pulse of SW groundswell due to fill in Sunday.

At dawn the swell may be a little undersized, with it kicking in large and consistent from later morning and peaking into the afternoon.

The Surf Coast should build to an easy 6-8ft, with 10ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, and I'd expect some of the regional swell magnets to be bigger again at the peak of the swell.

Unfortunately winds are still average and onshore but not as strong, with a moderate S/SE breeze, freshening into the afternoon.

Come Monday the swell will be more S/SW in direction and still large, easing from 6ft+ on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east on the sets, though a slow moving high in from the west will continue to direct S/SE winds across Bass Strait, shifting more S'ly through the day.

Onshore SE winds will persist into Tuesday, strengthening through the afternoon kicking up a late increase in SE windswell, while in the morning the S/SW groundswell should be easing from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east owing to the southerly swell direction.

As touched on in the Christmas Warp, Wednesday morning will see winds go variable though with onshore winds at dawn it'll likely still be lumpy and not great, with a mix of small, weak, fading S/SW and SE windswell from 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and a similar 2ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The end of the week looks poor with onshore S/SW winds kicking back in Boxing Day with no new swell, still onshore from the S/SE Friday with a new W/SW swell showing into the afternoon.

This swell will be generated by a strong but distant front forming north of the Heard Island region tomorrow, projecting a fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window, south-west of WA, weakening into Monday evening.

The swell is looking a little better than on Wednesday, with it due to build slowly Friday and peak later in the day to 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets but onshore.

Next Saturday morning looks better as the swell starts to ease from an inconsistent 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula with a morning E/NE-NE breeze. We'll confirm this on Friday though. Have a great weekend!