Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st November)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday through Friday next week Surf Coast

Recap

Clean conditions across most locations yesterday with a fresh and hot offshore wind and easing swell from around 2ft on the Surf Coast and the 3ft+ range to the east.

Today the surf is smaller again and clean on the beaches. A new inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due later today as winds hold, so aim for a late session. The swell has hit the Cape du Couedic buoy in South Australia and should arrive through the afternoon, kicking the Surf Coast to 2ft on the swell magnets, 3-4ft to the east.

This weekend and next week (Nov 2 - 8)

This afternoon's increase in inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due to peak tomorrow morning with inconsistent 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-4ft+ waves to the east. Our stronger pulse of W/SW groundswell due to arrive mid-morning is still on track, with a tight and intense low forming south of WA and producing a short-lived burst of W/SW gales in our swell window yesterday.

This should kick the Surf Coast to 3ft through the morning, 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula and winds will be favourable. A dawn N/NE breeze is due to shift N/NW-NW through the morning ahead of a shallow SW change later afternoon. Satellite observations (right) confirmed a tight bunch of storm-force winds around the core of the low, so it's not out of the question that we'll see the odd bigger set across both coasts as the swell peaks through the day.

Saturday's swell will ease into Sunday as some reinforcing mid-period energy fills in, generated by a broad but weak fetch of W/SW winds being aimed through our western swell window north and west of the low.

Surf to 2-3ft is expected on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft sets to the east along with favourable winds again. A dawn N'ly is due on the Mornington Peninsula, N/NW to the west, shifting more W/NW-NW later morning ahead of an early S'ly change around mid-afternoon or so.

Mid-period W/SW swell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast should continue into Monday, generated by a final front moving in from the west and towards us over the weekend. Winds will only favour the Surf Coast though with a light to moderate W/NW offshore, holding until mid-afternoon ahead of a SW change.

It looks like we'll see the surf starting to ease back from Tuesday from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 4ft+ to the east as winds persist out of the W/NW, giving into weak sea breezes if not going more variable.

As talked about last update, a stronger mid-latitude storm moving in towards us through early next week is due to generate a better W/SW groundswell for late week.

The initial stages of this storm will be a tight and intense low in the southern Indian Ocean, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds in our far swell window. The low is then expected to weaken and turn into a front while projecting up towards the Bight and then across us Wednesday evening and Thursday.

A long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell will be generated by the initial stages, with mid-period W/SW swell from the final stages. The mid-period energy is expected to build Thursday, kicking to 3ft+ through the afternoon on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula along with strong NW tending W/NW winds, peaking Friday mixed in with the groundswell. Better surf to the 4ft range is due on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east along with W/NW tending W/SW winds. We'll go over the timing and sizes again on Monday though. In the meantime enjoy the fun waves over the coming days!