Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th April)

Best Days: Surf Coast Thursday afternoon, protected spots for experienced surfers Friday and Saturday, Surf Coast Sunday and Monday, exposed beaches Tuesday

Recap

Variable winds and easing surf yesterday across all locations from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This morning the swell has eased further with small to tiny clean waves around Torquay, fun on the exposed beaches and to 2-3ft. A new mix of very inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell and better closer-range W/SW swell should build this afternoon with relatively weak onshore S'ly winds. The Surf Coast may reach 2-3ft, with 3-5ft sets to the east.

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This week and weekend (Apr 25 - 28)

This afternoon's increase in W/SW swells are due to peak overnight and ease temporarily into tomorrow morning back to 2-3ft on the sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-5ft to the east. Through the day though we'll see a better increase in W/SW swell, generated by a strengthening mid-latitude front moving in under the country today.

A great fetch of W/SW gales will be projected through our western swell window, with the swell due to build into tomorrow afternoon, likely reaching 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula later. Winds will be favourable all day for the Surf Coast and moderate to fresh from the NW tending W/NW.

Of greater importance is the deepening and strengthening low forming on the back of the mid-latitude front, with it broadening while projecting an excellent fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW tending SW winds under the country and up through our south-western swell window, pushing across Tasmania on Friday.

The storm-force winds acting on top an active sea state will result in a very large and powerful long-period SW groundswell event, building Friday and easing from a S/SW direction on Saturday while remaining large.

Friday morning looks to be around the 4-5ft range on the sets across the Surf Coast magnets, 6-8ft to the east, but building rapidly through the afternoon and reaching at least 8ft later in the day on the Surf Coast, if not for 10ft cleanups on dark at magnets, with the Mornington Peninsula maxing out around 10-12ft.

Saturday will remain large and powerful owing to the tail end of the low generating a storm-force SW fetch through our southern swell window Friday before passing across Tasmania, with easing surf from 8ft on the sets across Surf Coast magnets (6-8ft most breaks), and 10ft+ to the east.

Looking at the local winds, and Friday will be best in protected spots with a fresh to strong W/SW tending possibly SW breeze, with the Torquay region likely seeing a short period of W'ly winds around dawn.

Saturday looks great in protected spots for experienced surfers as winds back off in strength and come from the W/NW-W and only being moderate to fresh in strength.

A reinforcing SW swell will be seen into Sunday, generated by a broad and strong front swinging in behind Friday's storm, and this should keep the Surf Coast up around 4-5ft+ Sunday and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. A morning W/NW breeze will favour protected spots again with bumpy conditions into the afternoon as winds swing W/SW-SW.

A steady drop in size should be seen Monday and further Tuesday with improving winds for more exposed breaks.

Longer term we should see some new W/SW swell building from mid-week, though the models diverge on the size and local winds, so check back here Friday for more on this.