Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 29th March)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday and Sunday mornings, Monday, Tuesday all spots, Wednesday morning Surf Coast, beaches Thursday

Recap

A rapid drop in swell overnight Wednesday leaving much smaller but fun 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast yesterday, 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula with winds remaining favourable most of the day.

This morning the swell is a touch smaller again but fun on the magnets across both regions with offshore breezes. A new swell forecast by Ben later today on quick analysis looks to only reach 2-3ft on the Surf Coast as winds swing W/NW and then W/SW, but more on this below

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This weekend and next week (Mar 30 – Apr 5)

It seems Ben's been keeping the Southern Ocean more than active over the past couple of weeks in my absence, but coming in a little cold to the forecast period, especially this weekend is somewhat tricky. A new long-period groundswell forecast for later today and tomorrow doesn't look to quite reach the expected size Ben had in the last update.

A quick look back at the polar storm linked to it reveals a good fetch of gale-force winds wrapping around a polar low and projecting nicely through our south-western swell window. Model guidance later today combines a small long-period signal with existing mid-period energy, hence I'm cautious on seeing any major size by late today.

Tomorrow however looks the pick of the weekend as the swell peaks to a fun 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will be average across most breaks with a moderate to fresh SW breeze as a weakening front moves in from the west across us. The Surf Coast however should see a morning W/NW breeze creating fun waves in protected spots.

The swell will ease off through Sunday, with some small mid-period W/SW swell in the mix from the front moving through the Bight. Conditions will remain average across most breaks with a moderate to fresh W/SW breeze, but the Surf Coast is more than likely to see an early W-W/NW breeze with easing sets from the 3ft range.

Later in the day a new SW groundswell is likely to start showing, though Monday will reveal the most size and best conditions.

During today a good fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds will develop well south of Western Australia, tending more W'ly through our south-western swell window, followed by a gale-force SW fetch positioned more in our southern swell window.

This should produce another good SW groundswell to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast Monday, 5-6ft to the east and with lighter W/SW-SW winds, that should be W/NW for a period through the morning on the Surf Coast. With the lighter pressure gradient winds are expected to remain light into the afternoon providing fun waves all day.

A high will move in quickly through Monday bringing those lighter winds and come Tuesday we should see moderate N/NE-N offshore winds. This will create great waves on the beaches as the swell slowly eases, smaller Wednesday with a pre-frontal NW'ly ahead of a S'ly change.

There isn't expected to be much in the way of swell generated by this front though a fun increase in mid-period W/SW swell with favourable winds for the beaches is more than likely Thursday. Longer term a strengthening mid-latitude low looks to bring a windy low quality swell Friday/Saturday, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!