Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st January)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, keen surfers east of Melbourne Thursday morning, desperate surfers early Friday on the beaches, Surf Coast Sunday morning

Recap

A small bump in mid-period W/SW swell Saturday providing surfable waves for desperadoes, easing into Sunday with light workable winds again.

Today our strong new mix of W/SW and SW groundswell are filling in with light winds and 3ft sets this morning on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft sets to the east, but we've since seen the swell kick stronger. We should see the Surf Coast build to 4-5ft, with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula as winds freshen from the S/SE.

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This week and weekend (Jan 22 - 27)

Today's strong mix of groundswells will peak this afternoon/evening and start easing through tomorrow. Conditions are looking better now with a variable wind that may have a light easterly tendency though overall with the strength of the swell we should see good waves and options across most of the state.

The Surf Coast should ease back from 3-4ft, with 5-6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, smaller into the afternoon and bumpy with fresh SE sea breezes.

Wednesday will be poor as a surface trough moves in from the south-west followed by a strong high resulting in moderate to fresh S'ly tending S/SE winds as the swell continues to ease.

Winds should swing around to the E/NE on Thursday morning with a mix of building SE windswell and small mid-period S/SW swell across both coasts.

The mid-period energy will be generated by a weak polar front projecting towards Tasmania over the coming days, and is only likely to keep the Surf Coast around a weak 2ft, with 3ft+ sets to the east. The windswell from strong E/SE winds through Bass Strait looks small in the morning, though building later to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, and 2ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday morning will clean right up across most spots with a moderate to fresh N'ly wind ahead of a W'ly change as a strong mid-latitude starts moving in from the west. Size wise, the SE windswell looks to ease from a small 1-2ft on the Surf Coast, with a small, peaky and weak 2ft wave on the Mornington Peninsula.

The mid-latitude low isn't expected to generate any major swell, but a stronger long-period SW groundswell is due to fill in through the day and peak into the afternoon.

This is already being generated by a strong polar low in the Heard Island region, though not favourably aligned until it moves further east and closer towards us. A better fetch of polar gales will be produced this evening and tomorrow before breaking down Wednesday, with the swell being a little inconsistent and building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A moderate SW wind looks to create bumpy conditions Saturday, possibly W'ly early around Torquay but without any size, then clean Sunday morning with a W/NW offshore as the swell eases.

Longer term we've got some fun W/SW swell on the cards for early next week, but more on this in Wednesday's notes.