Victoria Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st February)

Best Days: Thurs PM/Fri: fun options east of Melbourne.

Recap: Gusty E’ly winds through Bass Strait provided a peaky short range SE swell for the Surf Coast on Tuesday (3ft sets), that just held in for the dawn patrol this morning. It’s now gone, as is a small easing groundswell that persisted about exposed East Coast beaches yesterday. Winds are out of the E/NE. 

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This week (Feb 20 - 23)

Today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s on leave.

A small groundswell will lift across the coast Thursday, after showing at the Cape Sorell buoy sometime tonight (it's already at the Cape du Couedic buoy in SA). Winds will remain out of the E/SE (perhaps E/NE for a period early morning) so the biggest beneficiary will be the open beaches east of Melbourne.

Expect size to show best through Thursday afternoon and perhaps Friday morning with very inconsistent 3ft, almost 3-4ft sets. There’ll be very little happening in Torquay with only small infrequent waves at the open beaches. Winds should tend more NE through Friday morning and then N’ly into the afternoon as a trough approaches from the west. Wave heights will also ease throughout the day. 

This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)

A small (very) long period groundswell will arrive across the coast on Friday afternoon, ahead of a peak through Saturday afternoon and Sunday, but the large travel distance will result in only a small swell size at the coast. 

That’s not the biggest problem this weekend. A gusty front will cross the coast on Saturday, swinging strengthening NW winds around to the W/SW, then holding SW at strength into Sunday. There is very little chance for a period of early W’ly winds in Torquay on Sunday - it is possible but confidence is pretty low, and even if it were to occur, it’s unlikely to improve wave quality to any major degree.

This front should kick up a decent amount of swell into Sunday though, as the front will develop a small low in our immediate S/SW swell window on Saturday that’ll briefly intensify and push NE towards Tasmania. We should see 3-4ft+ surf on Sunday across the Surf Coast with 5-6ft sets east of Melbourne, though unfortunately quality will be very hard to find.

Let’s take a closer look Friday to see if the wind outlook has improved.  

Next week (Feb 26 onwards)

Sunday’s swell will ease through Monday with abating winds. A blocking pattern is then expected to develop upstream within our swell window, leading to another period of small surf and tricky winds. 

A series of fronts wrapping a cut off low in the Bight may deliver some short range W’ly energy mid-week though it’s hard to have confidence on its swell potential for the state, as it’s not a great swell window (or storm track) for us. 

However the broader blocking pattern should break down around this time, leading to an increase in solid swell later next week and into the following weekend. More on this in Friday’s update.