Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th January)

Best Days: East of Melbourne Wednesday morning, both coasts Thursday morning and early Friday

Recap

A small clean start to the weekend on the Surf Coast with 2ft sets, giving into an afternoon onshore change. Sunday was then poor with a mix of new swells and onshore winds.

The best increase in S/SW swell seen yesterday held into this morning and the Torquay region saw early W/NW winds and fun 2-3ft sets. Everywhere else was poor.

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This week and weekend (Jan 16 - 21)

Today's S/SW swell will ease through tomorrow, bottoming out through the morning ahead of the arrival of a strong new long-period but inconsistent W/SW groundswell into the late afternoon.

The Surf Coast should hang in at 2ft on the sets, with 3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, though conditions will only be favourable in selected spots with an E'ly breeze, tending SE into the afternoon.

The long-period energy was generated by a 'bombing low' between WA and Heard Island late last week and over the weekend, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds projected through our swell window for over 24 hours.

The swell arrived a few hours behind schedule in Western Australia this morning, but has since kicked in strongly, and with this in mind, I'm not expecting any major size before dark tomorrow.

We should see the Surf Coast reaching an inconsistent 3ft on the sets by dark, and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but the bulk of the swell is due Wednesday. There's been no real change to the expected size, with the Surf Coast due to see inconsistent sets to 4-5ft at magnets, more so 3-4ft elsewhere, while the Mornington Peninsula should offer 5-6ft waves with 8ft sets. Expect long waits for those sets though.

Conditions will be average on the Surf Coast reefs and cleaner on the beaches with a morning E/NE breeze, giving into afternoon sea breezes.

Thursday looks really fun as the swell eases under local offshores during the morning, and afternoon sea breezes.

The Surf Coast looks like it will be easing from 3ft or so, with 4-5ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday will be clean again with a fresher N'ly wind early (N/NW on the Surf Coast) shifting NW through the day ahead of a SW change.

The surf will be much smaller though and easing from 2ft or so on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east.

Moving into the weekend and it's looking void of any major surf with small to tiny fading waves Saturday with an onshore S'ly wind, E/SE winds Sunday with a mix of building windswell and background SW energy.

Longer term the outlook for most of next week looks average, with a possible new swell mid-late next week. We'll have another look at this Wednesday.