Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th January)

Best Days: Beaches Thursday morning, both coasts Friday morning, Surf Coast keen surfers Saturday morning, next Wednesday

Recap

Clean conditions on the Surf Coast as we fell in between swells yesterday morning, giving into an onshore change mid-morning. Some good new W/SW swell filled in through the afternoon, holding this morning but conditions remained average across all locations with a moderate to fresh SE breeze.

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This week and weekend (Jan 11 - 14)

This morning's spike in W/SW groundswell has peaked, and we'll see it drop slowly through the day, bottoming out early tomorrow ahead of a reinforcing increase for the afternoon.

This reinforcing swell will be the first of two, with the second and better pulse due Friday from a good polar frontal progression under WA the last couple of days.

The Surf Coast is likely due to be 2ft+ tomorrow morning (2-3ft 13th Beach) and 4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, increasing back to 3ft and 4-5ft respectively through the afternoon, holding a similar size but with more power Friday morning.

Winds over the coming days will be great with a light NE offshore developing tomorrow morning ahead of SE sea breezes, and then N/NE tending N winds on Friday ahead of an afternoon W/SW change, favouring both regions through the morning.

Saturday morning will be smaller, and most locations will be average with a W/SW tending SW breeze, but the Surf Coast should offer an early W/NW breeze with waves in the 2ft+ range.

As touched on Monday, a strengthening lo dipping south-southeast through our swell window on Friday will generate a short-lived fetch of W/SW gales in our swell window, followed by stronger severe-gale W/SW winds in our southern swell window as the low continues drifting south.

This is expected to produce a W/SW tending S/SW swell, building Saturday afternoon and peaking Sunday.

We should see the Surf Coast build back to 3ft on the sets later Saturday, holding a similar size Sunday morning, though a further kick to 3-4ft may be seen into the afternoon from the strongest part of the low, but we'll review this Friday.

The Mornington Peninsula should increase to 4-5ft, with surf to 4-5ft+ or so Sunday.

Unfortunately a front moving through later Saturday will bring onshore SW winds, lingering from the S/SW on Sunday, creating poor conditions.

It looks like a developing Tasman Low will keep onshore S'ly winds persisting across the coast early next week as the swell continues to ease.

Next week onwards (Jan 15 onwards)

Longer term we look to the 'bombing low' in the Southern Ocean between WA and Heard Island later this week.

While a fair distance away, this system is expected to be placed more favourably in our swell window, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds being projected along our great circle path.

The slow moving nature and persistent fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds will help produce a moderate to large long-period W/SW groundswell that should be seen later Tuesday ahead of a peak Wednesday morning.

The Surf Coast should come around an inconsistent 4-5ft, with 6ft sets at magnets, while the Mornington Peninsula should offer 6-8ft sets.

At this stage there's a good chance we'll see variable winds Wednesday morning, but check back Friday for more on this.