Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 27nd December)

Best Days: Desperate surfers east of Melbourne mid-late morning Friday, Surf Coast Saturday morning, Sunday morning and Monday morning

Recap

Improving surf across the beaches east of Melbourne yesterday morning as dawn onshore winds backed off and swung offshore along with 3-5ft surf. The Surf Coast offered peaky waves around 2ft, with 3ft sets at magnets.

This morning the swell is back to an inconsistent 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula with clean conditions, while the Surf Coast is still seeing occasional 2ft sets with a mix of south-east windswell.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Dec 28 – 31)

A low point in swell is expected tomorrow morning with tiny waves on the Surf Coast, hardly breaking with the early high tide, and maybe the odd stray 1-2ft set on the Mornington Peninsula, though not ideal with that morning tide.

Conditions should be clean across both regions with a light variable N'ly wind before a shallow SW change moves through.

Our new inconsistent but small W/SW groundswell for Friday should lift wave heights a little, but the Surf Coast will remain tiny and around 1-1.5ft, with infrequent 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds are looking a little better now during the morning with a light tending variable SW breeze opening up options across exposed beaches for keen surfers. The afternoon will be average with a fresher SW'ly.

We've got better pulses of W/SW swell due through the weekend (upgraded since Monday) as a couple of back to back mid-latitude fronts produce W/SW fetches through our swell window.

The first system is currently projecting towards WA and should generate a fun increase in size Saturday to 2ft+ during the morning on the Surf Coast (3ft sets at 13th Beach) and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A stronger increase in size is expected Saturday afternoon generated by a stronger mid-latitude front pushing under the country from tomorrow afternoon through Friday. We'll see winds nearly reach gale-force strength, producing a kick in size to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast late in the day, with 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

A fresh W/NW wind will favour the Surf Coast through the morning, shifting W/SW through the afternoon.

Sunday morning looks to be the pick with easing clean surf from the 3ft+ range on the Surf Coast with a W/NW breeze, and bumpy 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into the New Year we've got plenty of reinforcing W/SW swell on the cards, generated by persistent frontal activity under the country over the weekend, but more on this Friday.