Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 18th January)

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Best Days: Early Friday both coasts, Sunday morning keen surfers east of Melbourne, Monday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

Clean conditions yesterday morning with easing 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula, while an overnight onshore change strengthened into this morning creating poor conditions across all locations with no decent groundswell.

This afternoon we should see a mix of W'ly groundswell and short-range W/SW swell building, but winds will remain poor.

This week and weekend (Jan 19 - 22)

This afternoon's mix of W'ly and W/SW swell are due to peak early tomorrow. The better W/SW swell has and is still being generated by a cold front that's currently pushing across Tasmania.

We should see 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, easing through the day and 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions are still looking average with a moderate SE'ly tomorrow morning, but this should ease and tend more E/SE, with a possible window of OK conditions east of Melbourne as it does so. Sea breezes will then kick up into the afternoon again.

Friday morning is still looking clean, but you'll have to be quick as local offshore winds are due to give into an onshore change mid-morning.

The Surf Coast is only due to be small and easing from 2ft on the sets, with 3ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday's change will be linked to a low forming off the East Coast and won't be related to any swell producing system.

With this even smaller surf is due Saturday and with onshore S/SW tending S/SE winds.

Our small mix of long-period W'ly swell and W/SW swell for Saturday afternoon and Sunday is still on track, but both these swells will struggle to provide much size at all on the coast.

The W'ly swell has been generated in our far swell window in the southern Indian Ocean, while some weak fronts moving under the country will produce some small to tiny and more consistent surf Sunday.

The Surf Coast will struggle to reach 1-2ft at magnets, while the Mornington Peninsula should see 2-3ft sets.

A light E'ly breeze should favour the eastern end of the peninsula through the morning ahead of sea breezes.

Next week onwards (Jan 23 onwards)

Longer term Monday should be cleaner with a N'ly offshore but the swell will remain small, while a strong cold front pushing through Tuesday should kick up a small to moderate sized W/SW swell for the afternoon and Wednesday (along with poor winds).

Beyond this small levels of W/SW swell are due to persist, but more on this Friday.