Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 11th January)

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Best Days: Both coasts Thursday and Friday, Surf Coast Saturday, experienced surfers Surf Coast early Sunday, both coasts Monday

Recap

Small clean waves around 1-2ft on the Surf Coast yesterday morning and 3ft to occasionally 5ft on the Mornington Peninsula before sea breezes kicked in.

Today a new W/SW groundswell has come in at a good 3ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, and NW winds have provided the best surf in a while west of Melbourne. A further kick in size is due later this afternoon but this will be with an onshore wind.

This week and weekend (Jan 12 - 15)

This afternoon's further kick in SW swell is being generated by a tight and intense mid-latitude low that was directly south-west of us overnight and is now passing under Tasmania.

This low formed late in our swell window, and as a result we're only expected to see a slight kick in size this afternoon, easing overnight. Sets to 3ft+ are likely on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with an onshore wind.

While the swell will ease tomorrow, a mid-period SW swell will fill in and replace it, produced by a trailing fetch of strong W/SW winds projecting towards us today. This should keep 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast all day tomorrow and 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from 3ft and 4-6ft respectively Friday morning.

Conditions tomorrow morning are now looking good across both coasts with a light variable wind expected ahead of SE sea breezes, and then Friday will be straight and clean with a moderate to fresh N/NE tending NW breeze and then late W'ly change.

This W'ly change will be linked to the strong cold outbreak approaching from the west.

Currently this system is west-southwest of WA, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds in our western swell window.

As the mid-latitude low drifts east it will weaken a touch, traversing towards the Bight while generating W/SW gales. As it moves through the Bight and closer to us, it will re-intensify, generating a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our western swell window Friday and Saturday morning, followed by a trailing fetch of severe-gale S/SW winds through our southern swell window on the tail of the low through Saturday morning.

We should see a large, long-period and consistent W/SW groundswell building rapidly Saturday, peaking overnight and then easing Sunday as the S/SW groundswell fills in.

Saturday morning is likely to be around 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with a further increase to 6ft+ and 10ft+ respectively due through the afternoon (8ft sets at magnets on the Surf Coast on dark are more than likely).

The S/SW groundswell looks large and should keep 6ft sets hitting the Surf Coast Sunday morning, easing through the day and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

An offshore W/NW breeze is due Saturday morning across the Surf Coast, swinging W'ly through the day and W/SW into the afternoon, but protected breaks should remain decent.

Sunday, SW winds are due across most locations, but Torquay is more than likely to offer a morning W/NW'ly, but it won't be perfect.

Next week onwards (Jan 16 onwards)

Come Monday the weekend's swell will continue to ease, likely from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula with local offshore N'ly winds.

Smaller surf is due Tuesday and Wednesday, ahead of a small inconsistent W/SW groundswell. But we've got plenty to deal with before then.