Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th November)

Best Days: Keen surfers east of Melbourne tomorrow morning, Friday morning keen surfers Torquay, Saturday morning Surf Coast, Sunday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

Fun clean 2-3ft waves Saturday morning on the Surf Coast with a new mid-period SW swell, building a bit further into the afternoon but with onshore winds.

Sunday saw the peak in swell with good clean 3ft+ waves across most spots (with bigger ones at magnets) while the Mornington Peninsula remained average.

Today the swell was on the ease and winds were unfortunately onshore rather than light offshore as a weak surface trough lingered off the southern NSW coast a little longer than ideal.

This week (Nov 29 – Dec 2)

The swell will continue to ease through tomorrow from a small 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula but winds look a little dicey still.

A variable breeze is more than likely, possible just a puff from the SE and with this scenario, the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island will be best. Keep an eye on the dawn reports and local observations though for a fresher breeze.

Wednesday looks less likely regarding a variable breeze, with a slightly stronger S'ly gradient flow and light to moderate S'ly tending fresher S/SW breezes due through Bass Strait. This along with a small easing swell will signal a lay day.

A low point in swell is due Thursday morning but the Mornington Peninsula should be cleaner with a variable breeze from the east and small 2ft+ sets.

A new inconsistent W/SW groundswell should build through the day, but with no major size and as E/SE sea breezes kick in.

A slightly better W/SW groundswell is due Friday, generated by a relatively weak but broad polar low that's currently south-west of WA. A fetch of strong to gale-force winds will produce a small swell, coming in at an inconsistent 2ft (odd bigger one at times) on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Moderate to fresh W/NW tending W/SW winds will favour the Surf Coast over the Mornington Peninsula, with the morning being the pick for keen surfers.

This weekend onwards (Dec 3 onwards)

As touched on last update, our much better W/SW groundswell due for the weekend is still on track, with a good mid-latitude low expected to form south-west of WA Wednesday, aiming a fetch of gale to severe through our western swell window as the low slowly tracks east-southeast.

The low will be really slow moving, remaining in our swell window until early Saturday morning and with this we'll see a prolonged swell event. It will initially start W/SW Saturday and turn more SW through Sunday.

The first signs of swell should be seen Saturday with strong sets to 4-5ft due across the Surf Coast (likely 6ft sets at magnets), and 6-8ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, while Sunday should see the swell easing slowly from a slightly smaller size.

Conditions are looking good Saturday morning on the Surf Coast with a light W/NW offshore ahead of sea breezes and then Sunday will be best to the east with a NE offshore ahead of sea breezes.

Longer term smaller swells are due, but check back here Wednesday for an update on the coming weekend.