Good fun period for the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 31st October)
Best Days: Surf Coast Tuesday through Thursday, early Friday east of Melbourne, Surf Coast all day, Surf Coast Sunday
Recap
Saturday was the pick of the weekend with a strong kick in new W/SW groundswell along with favourable winds for the Surf Coast early before gusty E/NE breezes developed. Sunday was small and best on the beaches to the east ahead of a W'ly change.
Today a good new mid-period W/SW swell has filled in with clean 3-4ft reef waves on the Surf Coast and larger choppy waves to the east. Conditions should remain favourable on the protected reefs across the Surf Coast most of the day.
This week (Nov 1 - 4)
Today's increase in mid-period W/SW swell is just the start of some better W/SW groundswells due over the coming few days across the state.
An elongated fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds are currently being drawn out between us and the polar shelf, south of WA.
The closest fetch of W/SW gales should produce a building W/SW groundswell for tomorrow, while a better aligned and more southerly located fetch moving up over the already active sea state should generate the largest increase in size Wednesday morning.
The Surf Coast should build from the 3-4ft range at magnets, with 5ft sets into the middle of the day/afternoon, while the Mornington Peninsula should pulse to 6ft to occasionally 8ft.
Stronger and more consistent 4-5ft sets are due on the Surf Coast Wednesday morning (possibly odd bigger bomb at Bells/Winki), with 6-8ft waves to the east, easing a touch later in the day.
Into Thursday moderate amounts of mid-period W/SW swell will continue across the state as a weak front generates pre-frontal W/NW winds through our swell window tomorrow and Wednesday.
Exposed breaks on the Surf Coast should continue around 3-4ft most of the day with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing into Friday.
Conditions over the coming days will be best on the Surf Coast with a fresh NW tending W/NW breeze tomorrow, W/NW winds Wednesday morning, shifting more W'ly into the afternoon (possibly W/SW through the afternoon). Thursday is expected to play out similar to Wednesday, cleanest on the Surf Coast reefs.
Friday is likely to see an early N/NE'ly east of Melbourne, but this will swing N/NW mid-morning, with clean conditions all day on the Surf Coast.
This weekend onwards (Nov 5 onwards)
Into the weekend we're set to see a strong cold outbreak across the south-east of the country, the never ending winter it seems.
With this an intense low is forecast to develop to our west-southwest on Friday, aiming a fetch of severe-gale W/SW tending SW winds into us through the night and Saturday.
A large W/SW tending SW groundswell event is due over the weekend with poor winds Saturday and cleaner conditions as the swell eases Sunday on the Surf Coast, but we'll have another look at this Wednesday.
Comments
Hey Craig, Pt. Nepean buoy just went offline. The Port has sold to private operators. Any idea if or where it is available? I'm like a junkie for that thing!
We're just looking into it right now.
Site has now moved to http://www.vicports.vic.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx and naturally the wave data cannot be found anywhere.
The switchboard number is 0383478300, i left a message on there, suggest others do the same!
Looking at the vic ports site it appears they might be moving to a new buoy.
This was posted to marniers early September http://www.vicports.vic.gov.au/operations/notices-to-mariners/Documents/...
This would place the buoy at https://goo.gl/maps/KEb7ucGxYW32 which doesn't seem too far off from the last one which from the screen shot I have of the old site was located https://goo.gl/maps/qYXNfYA8Mz32. The new location appears to be further south which I guess may mean it wont be so tide effected.
They move the buoy around every so often, but this shouldn't result in taking down the web page.
Hey Craig,
With that swell for the weekend coming up looks pretty solid on the wams what size would you say it's looking like being Saturday, even though winds looks problematic
Cheers
I'd say we're probably looking at surf in the 6ft range on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula beaches.
So we are bouyless for the time being. Anyone have an old smartphone, sticky tape, craypot with a bouy and boat? ( someone made an app that uses the sensors of the phone to record and send the data) I'm sure if we work together on this We could make it happen!
Well it's not really a necessity any way vciboy , standing anywhere on the coast and having a good look does the same job.
Big coastline though, for some of us that can only get in the occasional 45 minute dawn surf during the week knowing exactly where to go before you leave makes a big difference :)
Well Hachie you may need to seek unemployment, 45 minutes hardly seems satisfying.
Had a look at dawn as I often do to catch up with the fellas. Decided to throw the idea out as I could see someone from Melb way having a go at putting something together.
And your spot on.
Wave buoys are only necessary if your time poor. Observe the ocean and conditions enough and you will know where to surf.