Excellent Surf Coast tomorrow, beaches to the east Sunday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 5th October)

Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow, selected locations to the east, Surf Coast Friday morning, and Torquay early Saturday, beaches Sunday. Surf Coast from Monday arvo next week

Recap

Much better waves across the Surf Coast yesterday with a mix of mid-period and long-period W/SW swells coming in around 3ft for the most part across the coast. Conditions were clean but windy in protected spots, while a stronger W'ly developed through the afternoon along with an increase in size. Locations to the east were poor.

Today the surf was great on the Surf Coast with clean 3-4ft sets under a NW breeze, while protected spots were best to the east.

This week and weekend (Oct 6 - 9)

Tomorrow is looking great again on the Surf Coast as we see one final pulse of W/SW-SW groundswell from a vigorous mid-latitude front that's currently moving in from the west.

A fetch of strengthening pre-frontal W/NW gales, followed by severe-gale W/SW winds on the tail of the front late in our south-west swell window should produce a good kick for tomorrow morning.

The Surf Coast is expected to offer 3-4ft+ sets tomorrow (5ft sets Barwon Heads), easing later in the day, with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. A light to moderate NW offshore wind will create great conditions on the Surf Coast, with a N/NW'ly likely at times to the east of Melbourne.

Friday should be smaller and more to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula along with a morning W/NW'ly ahead of a SW change through the day.

Moderate amounts of W/SW swell will continue through the weekend, from another mid-latitude frontal system generating a pre and post-frontal fetch of W/NW-W/SW winds through our swell window, stalling tom our south-west Friday.

The Surf Coast should come in at a good consistent 3ft all day Saturday with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back slowly Sunday.

Onshore SW tending SE winds are due across most locations Saturday, with Torquay expected to see an early W/NW'ly.

Sunday will then be great on the beaches with a fresh N/NE tending late N/NW breeze.

Next week onwards (Oct 10 onwards)

As touched on in Monday's notes, we're still expected to see a deep and intense low pressure system forming to our south-west late on the weekend. This low is forecast to generate a broadening fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds while moving towards and then over us Monday.

A large W/SW groundswell should result, building later Monday and peaking Tuesday under strong W'ly winds. We'll have a closer look at this Friday.

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 5 Oct 2016 at 3:11pm

Cold, windy lines at Torquay this arvo.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 1:59pm

Man, it looks c-o-l-d in Torquay this afternoon.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 3:21pm

Nearly 27 in Melbourne, can't be to bad!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 3:55pm

Indeed.

Though, at Aireys Inlet around lunchtime air temps were 19.4 degrees - however wind gusts of 37kts gave it an 'apparent temp' of 10.7 degrees.

drodders's picture
drodders's picture
drodders Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 4:05pm

Was at Bells/Winki at about noon, bit bigger than 4ft, love Victorian surf reporting. Not sure what I would call triple OH sets? Victorian feet must be bigger than NSW feet. Caused me to leave my step up back in the hotel in Melbourne, anyway got a few solid ones, had three days of really fun surf. Thanks Vicco and thanks Craig pretty spot on with predictions even from the middle of last week. Turned out well for a visit my better half booked 5 months ago!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 7 Oct 2016 at 10:35am

Ah that's great to hear! Yeah swell was looking good early last week, changed a bit but still came in solid.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 4:25pm

To get around this problem we measure things in Garys down this way, drodders.

Sounds like you stared down a few 'Double Garys' this afternoon, and I'd imagine just like the real Gary they were pretty well groomed in this offshore; manscaped even

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 4:26pm

There's 10ft sets on the MP now

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 4:32pm

It's raining Garys in Vicco! Christmas comes early.

drodders's picture
drodders's picture
drodders Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 4:28pm

As described Gary they were deliciously groomed, definitely in the double Gary range

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 4:42pm

Craig, can you explain where all these Garys are coming from?

I can't see the explanation from your forecast above; is Stereosonic back on and no one has told me?

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 4:53pm

Getting pretty sick of you guys getting double Gary's all the time.

We got a window of 3 hours this week with waves that closed out 9.5 times out of 10 here on the East coast. My office lady came in this morning and said the waves were huge last night but in reality they barely registered a gary on the gary scale.

Time for a Vicco FIFO...... is everybody surfed out yet or what? Actually its a toss up between Cloudbreak though Sunday but I really wanted to go to the Leisurefest at Sandown.

Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu's picture
Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu's picture
Hako o hakonde ... Friday, 7 Oct 2016 at 10:11am

Yeah mick come on down on a FlyinFuckoff mission, there's always abed in Port Albert for you. With a head of hair like yours though you may want to try and get your trip to coincide with Sexpo.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 5:09pm

It's been Garys from all angles pretty much since the Bells comp, Mick.

Still, Gary's not getting Rig Of The Day on swellnet, nice shot yesterday.

Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 8:44pm

Been a good winter Gary

Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu's picture
Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu's picture
Hako o hakonde ... Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 10:53pm

We even had a few garys down Port albert way, of course we hog tied them and dragged them out of town

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 7 Oct 2016 at 9:14am

Now you're talking, Hako.

Gary's safe word is 'Donut'

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Friday, 7 Oct 2016 at 9:28am

Ha ha ha- Gold!

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 at 11:49pm

Average conditions between Torquay and Bells Tuesday & Wednesday regardless of what was reported here. Just confused, gutless junk swell. Today was pumping however.....5pm till dark was fucken amazeballs!!!

MRsinglefin's picture
MRsinglefin's picture
MRsinglefin Friday, 7 Oct 2016 at 3:36pm

Agree with Drodders re wave height in Vico. Only been living here for 6 months after a lifetime in NSW and a couple of years in SA.

You must use Hawaiian model or my eyesight is worse than I thought for a 62 year old.
Always take a longer board when you guys say 3 to 4 foot

So glad I signed up for the Swellnet subscription with the extra swell forecast as it allowed the wife to book 2 nights at Torquay (Wed and Thurs). Wow my shoulders are sore from surfing and exploring that part of the coast.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 7 Oct 2016 at 5:59pm

Good stuff mrsingle it's always a good feeling to be sore from surfing to much

Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie Friday, 7 Oct 2016 at 8:22pm

Well done MRsinglefin but goofyfoot is wrong you can't surf too much.