Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 28th September)

Best Days: Swell magnets both coasts Thursday and Friday morning, Surf Coast Saturday morning, east of Melbourne Sunday morning, Surf Coast Monday afternoon

Recap

Not the best day of surf yesterday with full 1-2ft waves in protected spots on the Surf Coast during the morning under a W/NW breeze, kicking a touch into the afternoon as a fresher breeze kicked in. Locations further east were poor.

Yesterday's small kick in inconsistent W/SW groundswell has held into this morning with good clean but inconsistent 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft sets to the east.

The swell should hold for most of the day, with a possible late increase in new W/SW groundswell as winds shift more NE.

This week and weekend (Sep 29 – Oct 2)

Our better pulse of W/SW groundswell for tomorrow is still on track, generated by a strong mid-latitude frontal system firing up over the weekend and earlier this week.

A peak is due tomorrow morning with inconsistent 2-3ft+ waves across swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions are expected to be good across exposed spots most of the day with a fresh N/NE tending N'ly breeze (N/NW on the Surf Coast).

A drop in size is due through the afternoon, and into Friday some very tricky and acute W'ly swell is due to fill in. This will originate from a severe and intense mid-latitude low that's forming off the South Australian West Coast.

For me, the winds aren't ideal at all for us, aimed S'ly, too north and out of our swell window. But the models are picking up a spike in new W'ly swell from this system which I'm going to disregard.

I can't see any real size, with small 2ft waves max due on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Light offshore winds are due through the morning, tending light onshore into the afternoon.

During Friday as the low moves closer to us while weakening, a fetch of strong to gale-force S/SE winds will be generated just within our swell window.

A small S/SW groundswell is due off this Saturday, mixed in with some building W/SW windswell through the afternoon as the the weakened low pushes through Bass Strait.

Size is tricky but we may see 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula but with NW tending W/SW winds.

Sunday will be small to tiny and weak with fading W/SW windswell under N'ly tending W/NW winds.

Next week onwards (Oct 3 onwards)

Winter isn't dont with yet! Next week is looking much better for surf with moderate to possibly large W/SW swells from a series of strong mid-latitude fronts firing up under the country and moving across us. We'll nut out the details of these swells on Friday.