Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th September)

Best Days: Surf Coast Thursday morning, Friday, Sunday, both coasts Monday, Surf Coast Tuesday

Recap

Terrible conditions yesterday with onshore E/SE winds across the Surf Coast and large peaky waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions improved at 13th Beach into the afternoon though and other selected locations as winds tended more E/NE.

This morning conditions were poor again across most coasts with a fresh E'ly wind, but this has started to swing more NE and will continue to swing offshore from the N/NW by late morning as a low sitting to our west drifts slowly south-east. Improving conditions are expected across all locations, therefore keep an eye on the cams for a good window to hit up the surf from later this morning.

This week and weekend (Sep 15- 18)

Tomorrow's good new increase in SW groundswell is still on track, but we've also got a small window of clean conditions due across the Surf Coast through the morning. An early W/NW'ly is due ahead of a gusty SW change mid-late morning.

Good 3-4ft+ sets are due across the Surf Coast with 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula for most of the day, easing back into Friday. Winds on Friday are due to be offshore from the NW all day, creating great conditions on the Surf Coast.

Saturday morning will start slow and around 2ft+ on the Surf Coast with sets around 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. An early W/NW breeze is due, swinging onshore form the W/SW through the day.

This will be along with a new building W/SW groundswell that's due to peak Sunday.

The source of this swell is a vigorous polar low that's been traversing the southern Indian Ocean, with it currently sitting south-west of WA. The low will weaken with a front racing ahead of the main swell its produced, and pushing into us Saturday.

This will kick up an afternoon increase in weak W/SW windswell Saturday afternoon, with the groundswell arriving for Sunday, providing inconsistent 3ft sets on the Surf Coast with possibly the odd bigger one at magnets and 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds should tend back to the NW Sunday, favouring the Surf Coast again over the Mornington Peninsula.

Next week onwards (Sep 19 onwards)

Early next week is looking great with some good new SW groundswell for Monday from another strong polar low firing up south-west of WA Friday and pushing east over the weekend.

A pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales will be closely followed by slow moving post-frontal W/SW winds, generating a moderate sized SW groundswell for Monday. Solid 3-5ft sets are due on the Surf Coast with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula and winds look to be from the N'th. A secondary reinforcing W/SW groundswell is due Tuesday as winds go more NW, but we'll have another look at this Friday.