Excellent weekend west of Melbourne, average next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 19th August)
Best Days: Surf Coast for experienced surfers Saturday, Surf Coast Sunday and early Monday, east of Melbourne Monday morning and Tuesday morning
Recap
A rapid drop in surf through yesterday with a weak easing W/SW swell from 2ft+ at dawn on the Surf Coast, tiny into the afternoon and from 4ft down to 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Today was tiny and with rain coming in from the west as the pre-frontal moisture ahead of the 'bombing low' moves through.
It's hard to say if we'll see any increase in W'ly swell before dark today, but there is the chance for a wave in the last hour of light across the Surf Coast as winds hold from the W/NW. Keep an eye on the Torquay Cam for signs.
This weekend and next week (Aug 20 - 26)
Over the last 24 hours we've seen a significant low pressure system 'bombing' in the Bight (dropping over 24hPa in less than 24 hours).
This has resulted in a fetch of storm-force W/SW-SW winds being aimed just within our western swell window, confirmed by satellite imagery shown right.
This low has begun to weaken while slowly tracking east-southeast and more into our swell window, with a large, powerful long-period W/SW groundswell still on the cards for tomorrow morning.
Due to the west in the swell keep in mind there'll be a large variation in wave heights from protected spots and more open locations, ie Lorne to 13th Beach. Magnets on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning are due to peak around 6ft with 8ft sets more than likely, easing steadily through the day, likely back to the 5ft range through the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula should see solid 8-10ft+ sets, easing back to 6-8ft into the afternoon.
Come Sunday the swell will be more SW in direction from SW fetch on the backside of the low with the Surf Coast due to continue easing steadily from 4ft at dawn, back to 2-3ft through the day and from 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, back to 4-5ft.
Now, conditions over the weekend are looking excellent on the Surf Coast for experienced surfers with a moderate to fresh NW tending W'ly breeze tomorrow, NW all day Sunday.
Come Monday next week there isn't expected to be much size left across the Surf Coast with fading 2ft sets and 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Slightly better N/NW winds are due across the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island, creating OK surf.
Tuesday looks funky with NE tending SE winds as a weak trough moves across us, along with a slight lift in W/SW swell. The Mornington Peninsula will be the pick for clean 3-4ft surf.
Into the second half of next week the outlook is quite dynamic but not favourable with a strong cold outbreak moving in from WA expected to merge with tropical moisture drawn in from the north-west resulting in a large multi-centred inland low developing across the state. This will likely bring poor SE tending S/SW windswell with onshore winds, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Stunning!
Does the 'bombing low' also mean the systems passes faster or slower. Only reason i wonder this is because i had a look at maps last night and the front was on the SA/Vic border like 15 hours ago yet just came in a hour ago at Morn Pen. Usually the weather takes like 6-8 hours instead of 12 from border to here?
Good question, the speed of the system doesn't really relate to how intense it is.
This 'bombing low' is quite slow moving, which is great for enhancing swell generation, instead of moving too quick through the swell window.
Ahhh okies. So this particular low is quite a goodie? Its intense and slow moving therefore producing good swell heights and it doesnt seem situated too far away nor too close therefore, as you touched on with my question in swell period, produces a more consistent swell also? The only downside would be alot of west in direction?
It's still a WSW swell direction 255 degrees that's not to bad is it Craig compared to a full westerly direction where nothing will get in. If it was a SW swell direction would be the same size just not as big a variation like Lorne would be bigger Tomoz it probs would only be 3ft
Go have a look for yourself and work it out instead of looking for others to validate your ideas. Not everything needs to be spelt out online people learnt coastlines by observing weather and ocean conditions etc over time do so yourself mate.
Don't you guys read articles above . ( know your product ) . Swell will be west and not an overly high period so most likely under expectations . There will be secondary swell that will be more close to SW but nothing enormous .
I read start to finish. Im not asking to see what the west coast sizes will be or whatever. I was just curious about this low and its positioning/behaviour for a future refrence.
Only 3 ft in Torquay at the moment has it not peaked yet or did somethings weird happen?
Bouys peaked about 10 hours ago ... looks like another average overcrowded day on the surfcoast. Craig could you please let us know if you have reevaluated your predictions for tomorrow based on this morning ? Cheers boss
Pt Nepean still rising
Nah, seperate swells so should still be around 3-4ft or so tomorrow morning.
HaHa
Ha Ha can only guess there would have been plenty of anticipation on the drive from the suburbs only to pull up at the bells car park full of disappointment.
4.7m @ 15secs now
Maybe offshore from Tasmania. 2m @10sec off Nepean (the one that counts). On par with my expectations with such a westerly swell
I thought you go off the peak period/size?
Where da swell?
Too much west?
You can see it going straight past us out to see .. I wonder as it tends more SW if it'll start to get in ....
Ah well, craigie boy, at least you predicted the froth and bubble in the carpark.....or was your week-long hype intended to achieve that? Lucky the wind chill was -1.
Whoever does the dawn report for torkers must have been on the good gear til the wee hours, too - calling it 3-5ft and strong swell....? Crikey, and that was with 20mins of daylight under their belt. For a moment I thought it might have been April 1st.
What are you insinuating Tangoo, Craigs not luring cashed up Melbourneites to come down and spend there money in Torquool!!!
I'm insinuating that the surf would be a lot less crowded if people had to have half an idea about the ocean rather than be spoon-fed. It's reached the stage where the intrepid and/or informed have little hope of good uncrowded waves anywhere on the coast largely thanks to the absurd level of detail and direction in some reports. I'm not sure what good it does anyone, really. Next thing you know some entrepreneurial hipsters will be coming over on the good days to wake you up, make you coffee and whisk you off to a crowded lineup at a secret surf coast slab. Woo hoo.
Fucking awesome so how many fwits from Melbourne wasted their time and petrol.
Not that every surfer from Melbourne is a fwit.
Now i wonder if wharfie is from west coast? Or further down the line.
Nick I was conceived in the car park at Jan Juc.
Guess it was a good day to work all day then?
I have never known a good day to work!
Let alone all day, which by the way I have never attempted.
So the report was off ! I drove a couple of ks from home and watched a beautiful sunrise over the mornings waves.West coast beat the hawks a pretty good weekend so far.
Lucky your not stressed some people drive a fair length and are hurting when the forecast isn't quite what was anticipated.
THe dawn report is just a last minute forecast from the night before, as it's generally always in before first light anyway...
Must admit I to had a chuckle when I saw the board riders flag flying proudly at the start of the bells carpark, only to find them surfing up against the cliffs at high tide Rincon.
Never mind the Melbourne fwits, throw em in with the warrallily warriors.
Surely the swell will get here later..
No doubt every car had the blue, red and white torquay automotive stickers the drivers paddling around thinking they own the place.
Na Wharfie not all people from Melbourne are fwits, the ones that don't surf are cool.
I used to hate contests too, but having over a 100 of the biggest tools in the region in one spot isn't a bad thing, especially if you probably would not surf there on a weekend anyway. :-)
Not all surfers from Melb are fwits plenty of good fellas amongst them i must admit just as not all locals are good plenty of half wits amongst local fraternities. Sometimes you just get slightly fed up with every reasonable forecast attracting crowds who hold no regard for anyone else dog eat dog rat race type people which is why today I got a kick out of sitting in the car park watching disappointed carloads looking perplexed at the forecast not meeting expectations. Looking out to sea awaiting the slightest bump to justify their trip.
Yeah those stickers, not quite but a bit like getting the letter "L" tattooed on your forehead when venturing out of Torquay.
The knives are out today!
How were the reform bowls today goofyest?
Please refer to above post shauny(est).
I worked all day
Goofy the pen is mightier than the sword.
For cash;) always cash on the weekends.
warralilly Warriors that's a great name for a co ed netball team
"This has resulted in a fetch of storm-force W/SW-SW winds being aimed just within our western swell window, confirmed by satellite imagery shown right."
You all herd it here on Friday....just within w swell window:)
Far out, what an absoluse fizzer.
Yeah as I noted above, the fetch was within our swell window and slow moving, and I was cautious with it being west in nature, but to underperorm so badly.
How big did Bells get those who were keeping an eye on it?
Ha!
oh well can't win em all Craig
If anything, i love this stuff. I value the forecasters notes highly. Always through and pretty well spot on but i love the fact that nature in her most uniquely beautiful self be unpredictible. Kudos to mother nature.
1-2ft with the odd 3ft bomb at lunchtime
What a day, probably one of the worst in terms of expectations vs. reality I've had in my surfing days for a long time...the swell was there, it was west, but it was powerful. All but the most pessimistic would have been expecting at least 3ft+ - but to get a couple of feet only...?
I was one of the unlucky souls driving down from Melbourne...scouring the coast, then heading out to Winki at lunchtime for a grovel. Last weekend it delivered, this weekend it didn't, the Southern Ocean swell machine is not without it's randomness.
Yeah totally, I would of never even in my wildest dreams thought of forecasting anything less than 3ft, and if this pattern popped up tomorrow I'd not really change the forecast. Another one of mother natures curve balls.
Quiet sesh with a few buddies just on dark after walking in - what more could you ask for? The outgoing tide cleaned it up to a very tidily.
Actually got some good waves today.
Yep, Port Albert was all time!!
When is there ever a bad day at Port Albert? Personally I think Manns Beach tends to have a better Wave on its day a lot of effort and fucking Sharkie though.
If there was forecaster notes for that area I reckon you would have swarms of Melbournites scratching their heads at where to go.
Last frontier stuff Port Albert area is, don't give to many specifics away.
I don't think these guys are up to forecasting this area, maybe southy could if he could stay off the turps long enough.
Yep its too difficult for most people to successfully work out. A hell of a lot more effort than reading the forecasters notes and choosing to go to east or west depending on what Craig says is the best bet.
50-something comments because a swell was a little more west than forecast.
Gee Craig, Gary can't wait to see how many pages of thank you comments you get when the swell forecast is perfect, or maybe even a little bigger than predicted!
Crazy weekend, I wasn't around to analyse what went on but it'll be interesting to hindcast this event.
In the meantime, there are plenty of strong sets showing across the 13th stretch. And this is with the Cape Sorell buoy data showing almost half of that what was recorded on Saturday!
It's a west facing bit of the coast, bound to be a bit of swell.