Great waves to the east Thursday, large pumping Surf Coast Saturday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 17th August)
Best Days: East of Melbourne Thursday (Surf Coast beaches), on dark Friday Surf Coast, Saturday for experienced surfers on the Surf Coast, Sunday Surf Coast
Recap
Yesterday morning's reinforcing W/SW groundswell continued to provide excellent 3-5ft sets across the Surf Coast during the morning under N/NW winds, while the beaches to the east were still solid and up to a clean thumping 6ft.
This morning the change was delayed to just after dawn, with the early session on the Surf Coast seeing clean 3ft surf. The change has since moved through across all locations, creating poor conditions.
This week and weekend (Aug 18 - 21)
Tomorrow morning is still looking best on the beaches both east of Melbourne and across the Surf Coast as winds quickly swing back to the N/NE as a strengthening frontal system and deepening mid-latitude low pushes in from the west.
A new long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell generated in the south-east Indian Ocean should see 2-3ft sets across Torquay early, easing through the day, with infrequent 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
With this forecast, the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island beaches will be the pick.
Now, our dynamic and intense low that's forecast to develop to our west has changed a little in its positioning.
The system will now be a mid-latitude 'bombing low', rather than a polar low, with it bombing (dropping more than 24hPa in 24 hours) as it tracks slowly east-southeast from under WA towards Tasmania.
With this new development, we'll see a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force (possibly hurricane-force) W/SW-SW winds generated through our western swell window.
A large long-period but acute W'ly swell will be generated for late Friday, tending more favourably to the W/SW Saturday morning as the low dips south more into our swell window.
The Surf Coast may kick to 3ft on dark Friday with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under moderate to fresh NW-W/NW winds.
The peak is expected Saturday morning though with large sets in the 6-8ft range due across the Surf Coast (chance for an upgrade if the low is a little more south when strongest), with 10ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under NW winds, possibly shifting more W/SW later in the day. A steady drop in size is due through the day though.
A further drop in swell is due through Sunday as the swell swings more SW from a weaker fetch of SW winds on the backside of the low, and NW winds will continue to favour the Surf Coast.
Extra Vicco stuff: Be sure to check out the all new Lost Lands Music festival held over the Melb Cup weekend. The Waifs, Missy Higgins, Mariachi El Bronx and more - a festival for families and friends, with adult and children programming in equal measure. Swellnet peeps have access to the limited Lost Lands offer: Buy 1 adult ticket and the child is free, saving $50. Get on it! More info here: swllnt.com/2aNC5iH
Comments
Hi Craig,
as usual thanks for the great report.
Do you think the pumping swell forecast for saturday will lend itself well to some decent waves in the flinders region? I am thinking there is enough of it to get into the bay..could be cranking?
thanks
gus
I wouldn't say pumping, especially with the west in the swell but there'll be waves.
Craig why has the torqauy forcast only got it being 4-6ft Saturday morning instead of 6-8ft like you said it's looking like or maybe possibly bigger
Cheers
Latest updates have the low staying a little higher, the swell a little more west and smaller in the 6ft+ range. We'll see over the coming days.
PSA: Torquay Boardriders event is on this Saturday at Bells:
http://www.torquayboardriders.org.au/
Have to day Average the sooner the website is improved the better and the whole "go hard or go home" is pretty cute lol
Good stuff they should run Old Boys at Bells, A Grade at Winki, B Grade at other usually busy popular break down the coast, Women at Jan Juc reef, Groms at other Jan Juc reef, Mals at other Jan Juc Break fuck just shut down the whole coast for board riders. Piss off a few city weekend warriors.
Now that surfing will be in the Olympics, perhaps they can reserve Bells/Winki strictly for private coaching of athletes and competitions.
Bloody good idea Stok
Craig when the low bombs would there already be active sea state ?
No not really, but the slow moving nature of the low will counter this somewhat.
Updated: 2016-08-18 06:28:00
Surf: Clean 3-5ft SW
Were talking faces here arent we?
Don't think they are nick. I did the rye, St. Andrews, gunna run around this morning and there were 4ft sets (ie. Overhead)
It was laced with sarcasm. Porto no bigger than 3 and thats being lenient. Ah well. Hopefully something still this arvo
No, that's 'surfers feet'.
Have been watching the cam since and the swell looks very inconsistent but as GF said, still 4ft sets. Point Nepean is dropping slowly so this arvo will probably be back to 2-3ft.
Hey Craig , what is the link to the point nepean data? I used port of Melbourne but it has been shagged for weeks and I had a brief look for another link , but couldn't get it to work.
Here ya go.. Point Nepean wave data.
farrrk i don't know what has happened.i haven't been able to get the data for weeks and your link does it! I am such a technological leper.
Cheers
What are the latest modals saying about the swell for Saturday Craig?
Cheers
Its saying weekend warriors should experience overcrowded dropping swell save your fuel money but if you are desperate make sure you carpool and all paddle out at the same time after texting all your mates and posting pics on Facebook and Instagram. Once out in the line up weekend warriors will paddle each other too deep and won't make any waves.
This is just within our western swell window..
Craigo mate love the report, how big do you reckon it's gonna be on Sunday.
Cheers, check the latest update here: Excellent weekend west of Melbourne, average next week