Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 13th July)

Best Days: Surf Coast for experienced surfers Thursday and Friday, Saturday and Sunday Surf Coast, east of Melbourne later Saturday and Sunday morning

Recap

As expected yesterday didn't really offer much of a chance for a surf with tiny clean waves on the Surf Coast, kicking slightly later in the day. The Mornington Peninsula was a small and windy 2-3ft yesterday morning, kicking to a stronger 6ft by dark with novelty waves in Port Phillip Bay.

Today the large mix of groundswells were filling in with solid raw but workable 6ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 8-10ft sets to the east. The swell will continue to strengthen through the day and winds are due to swing W/SW, limiting surfing options to super protected spots.

This week and weekend (Jul 14 - 17)

The broad and vigorous frontal system responsible for today's building SW swell and low level snow will continue to generate south-west winds in the gale to severe-gale range through our swell window this afternoon and evening.

This will be then followed immediately by a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds right to our south-west early tomorrow morning.

What will result is a large reinforcing pulse of SW groundswell for tomorrow morning, ahead of a secondary kick overnight for Friday morning. The Surf Coast should ease slightly from 6-8ft tomorrow morning and and 10ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday will then be solid and easing from 5-6ft and 8ft+ respectively.

Conditions will be best on the protected reefs west of Melbourne and only for experienced surfers with a moderate to fresh W/NW'ly tomorrow, persisting Friday and possibly tending W/SW through the afternoon.

The surf should continue to ease back into Saturday morning, but into the afternoon some new W/SW groundswell is due, holding Sunday from a flurry of pre-frontal W/NW-NW gales.

This should keep plenty of surf hitting both coasts around the 3ft+ range on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions will be great all weekend on the Surf Coast with offshore winds, while the Mornington Peninsula will be best Sunday morning with a more N'ly breeze.

Into next week we'll continue to see long-range levels of W/SW groundswell across the state, moving in from a flurry of strong frontal activity in the Indian Ocean. While not too sizey or consistent winds will be favourable for the Surf Coast Monday and Tuesday, better to the east Wednesday.