Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 29th June)

Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow with tricky offshores, Friday afternoon Surf Coast, Surf Coast Saturday and Sunday, possibly Surf Coast early Monday

Recap

Good but inconsistent 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast yesterday, with a better stronger and more consistent W/SW swell to 3-5ft this morning.

This week and weekend (Jun 30 – Jul 3)

Short summary today as I'm not feeling the best.

Strong N'ly winds will create tricky surfing conditions tomorrow as today's W'ly swell fades away from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will swing NW through the afternoon so hit locations east of Melbourne through the morning.

Our mix of swells for Friday are still on track but conditions are now looking poor with a fresh to strong SW'ly due to be in from dawn. Winds will swing more W/SW through the day and the late session on the Surf Coast may be OK. A short-range W/SW swell is due to offer 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast, with a groundswell for the afternoon to a similar size.

The weekend is looking much better with a couple of reinforcing W/SW groundswells from broad pre-frontal fetches of W/NW gales moving under the country over the coming days.

Conditions will be best on the Surf Coast with a W/NW offshore Saturday and 3-4ft sets, and then NW winds Sunday as the swell drops a touch to 3ft+. The Mornington Peninsula won't offer too many options besides the odd small wave in Western Port Saturday.

Next week onwards (Jul 4 onwards)

A good long-range W/SW groundswell is due Monday from a strong and long-lived polar low firing up in the Heard Island region. We're probably looking at inconsistent 3-4ft+ sets on the Surf Coast with 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, but winds are an issue with a weak surface trough moving through around dawn, with a developing S/SE'ly due. We'll look at the timing of this closer Friday.

A drop in size is due Tuesday with more variable winds, but more on this Friday.