Good period for the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th June)
Best Days: Surf Coast every day, selected spots east of Melbourne, Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday
Recap
A fading short-range W/SW swell was seen across the Surf Coast yesterday from 2ft+ but with all day offshores. Locations east of Melbourne were average with Phillip Island the only decent option.
A late kick in new swells wasn't really seen before dark, but a peak has been seen this morning with good clean 3-5ft waves on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh NW-W/NW winds. An onshore change is due just after lunch, so make the most of this morning's waves.
This weekend (Jun 25 - 26)
We've got a fun weekend on the cards across the Surf Coast with plenty of swell and good winds.
Today's mix of swells will ease into the weekend, but we've got a mix of short-range W/SW swell from a front pushing across us this evening and better reinforcing SW swell due tomorrow morning.
Size wise the Surf Coast should continue at 3-4ft+ tomorrow morning, easing into the afternoon and then down further from 3ft Sunday. The Mornington Peninsula should continue around 6ft+, backing off from 4-6ft Sunday.
Winds are looking good with a W/NW breeze due to persist most of the day across the Surf Coast tomorrow (SW tending W/SW to the east).
Sunday will then see NW winds all day, likely N/NW east of Melbourne most of the day.
Next week onwards (Jun 27 onwards)
There's no real change to our large W/SW groundswell due Monday across the state, with satellite observations picking up a slow moving fetch of storm-force SW winds in our far swell window.
The low generating this fetch will project west towards us while gradually weakening over the weekend, with a short-range W/SW swell due early Monday morning ahead of the groundswell proper into the afternoon.
The Surf Coast should see clean 2-3ft waves at swell magnets Monday morning, building to an inconsistent but strong 5-6ft into the mid-late afternoon with larger 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds are now much better with an onshore change through the day due to be much weaker, resulting in NW tending W'ly winds. Tuesday will then be great all day on the backside of the swell with a persistent NW'ly.
Some reinforcing W/SW swell is possibly into Wednesday from a small but strong mid-latitude front moving in under the Bight early next week. This should keep easy 3ft+ waves hitting the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets to the east under better N/NW tending N'ly winds.
Longer term we've got a flurry of stronger but tricky frontal activity for later in the week/next weekend but check back Monday for more on this. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Hey Craig,
Why has the surf forcast for Monday only got it being 3-5ft for torqauy when your saying it will be 5-6ft why is under calling it ?
Cheers
Just with the westerly and long-range nature of the swell, our model calculations seem to be underforecasting the size seen at the beach a little.
This is where a human forecast becomes useful over the computer model data.
I hear ya Craig.
Sometimes Gary goes for the models, and sometimes he goes for the other humans. Variety is the spice of life.
Hey Craig,
With the swell tomorrow when you saying building to 5-6ft are you saying that it Wil be 5-6ft and swell magnets and smaller at normal beaches or that it will be 5-6ft at normal beaches and bigger at swell magnets like bells ?
Cheers
How about you just go to the beach and have a look eh..
Better still Vicsurf1......why don't you just ask Craig to go for a surf for you and report back on how it was?
Fuck Me Dead........
Both of you blokes have a spell. Just a question which is relative and doesn't need a response like that from you flogs. Just stick to Mornington peninsula where it's bumhole goofyfoot and is only good 10 days a year cuase it can't handle anything more than 5ft good mate might aswell just surf port Phillip bay
You dissing my home homie?
Yeah I am nick bone Mornington peninsula is absolute arsehole can't handle anything over 5ft or else it's closes out. Move somewhere else mate your surf over there is just a big wall of sloppy moist shit
Hahah he's still going! I'm so happy you think that
Have a spell mate are you going to try and claim that Mornington is better than the surf coast. What's the point of living in a place if there are way better waves across the bay. More variety of breaks , better winds, holds more size, is good for more than 10 days a year which is what Mornington has to offer, and the coastline goes for so much longer there are so many more breaks. Mornington penisula goes for about 20km maybe less and it's just closeout central and can't hold over 5ft. How can you live there honestly have some perspective mate just live on the other coast. And your comment " I am happy you think that " I don't think it I know it, you ask anyone Mornington peninsula is just no good and will never compare to the west coast. Just move now the "least coasts" genuinely sucks
Mate I'm having a spell, don't worry about that.
Everything you say is true brudda, don't ever come here. Please.
Did the peninsula touch you when you were little?
Haha the best thing about revving you up is the classic response you give back. Onya mate, I get a chuckle every time.
Hope ya get some tomorrow
G'day craigo mate, any chance of a sneaky, little, stingy baz tommorow as im keen to get inside of baz. It has been a while since I've been deep in baz. The last time I was deep inside baz I had the best feeling and do you rekon I will be able to penetrate baz for the first time in a while tommorow. I might be a bit rusty by I should be able to get the job done. Goofy mate take a good hard look at yourself, you have upset the barrel gods and I think you need to apologise or else you will be cursed and not be able to meet baz ever agian.
Baz . By chance you aren't Gaz's brother are you .
Gaz is all about turns and facey's , but you like trying to go straight and riding barrels .?
I thought he wanted to get it on with Baz?
G'day fellas, had a great day inside baz. There was indeed some sneaky, stingy, little baz's on offer today. Hope everyone else penetrated deep inside baz today. There should be some sneaky bazes on the loose tommorow.