Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 13th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast every day, protected locations east of Melbourne every day (more exposed breaks Thursday and early Friday)

Recap

Good waves Saturday morning across the Surf Coast with a new building SW swell and morning offshore ahead of a mid-morning W/SW change.

The swell continued to build all day, peaking overnight but then easing from a pumping 4-5ft on the Surf Coast reefs yesterday morning and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Today the swell has steadied at a good clean 3ft+ across the Surf Coast with 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under offshore N/NW winds.

This week (Jun 14 - 17)

This is more like it!

Our good run of the swell across the Surf Coast the last couple of days will continue into the coming week with a flurry of strong polar frontal activity to our south-west setting in motion a couple of strong SW groundswell pulses for the coming days.

A series of pre-frontal severe-gale W/NW fetches have generated a couple of long-period SW groundswell pulses for tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning.

The Surf Coast should build to 3-5ft through the day with 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from a similar size Wednesday morning.

Conditions will be best on the Surf Coast but also good in semi-protected spots east of Melbourne with a moderate to fresh N/NW tending lighter W/NW wind tomorrow and NW tending variable winds Wednesday.

A temporary low point in activity is due Thursday morning but in saying this the Surf Coast isn't due to drop below 3ft with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into the afternoon though a strong new long-period S/SW groundswell is due, generated by a tight and intense polar front. This system will develop south-west of WA this afternoon with a pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds setting up an active sea state for stronger storm-force W'ly winds to move over.

Due to the storm-force core winds, a long-period and powerful S/SW groundswell is expected, arriving through the mid-late morning and kicking strongly into the afternoon, reaching 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The swell is expected to peak overnight, easing back through Friday from 3-5ft and 6ft+ respectively.

A more N/NW breeze is due Thursday (N'ly on the Mornington Peninsula) and Friday morning ahead of a S/SW change that's due at some stage through the day.

This weekend onwards (Jun 18 onwards)

Our run of swell will continue into the weekend and next week as weaker but persistent polar frontal activity continues to develop in our south-western swell window.

Saturday should continue at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, building a touch into the afternoon with sets to 5ft, with an even larger pulse on the cards for later Sunday/Monday. Winds aren't looking as favourable but we'll have a look at this again Monday